Market analysis for Nov. 8th, 2024

Welcome to Friday. It's been quite a week to be sure. Today should be a big more mild. Yesterday was a good day for us in that we locked in the gain on our SPX debit setup. We'll re-set that trade next Monday. Scalping hurt me once again. Four days in a row looking for a pullback that never happened. See our results below: 

We've got a lot of potentail take profit trades today. Six earnings trades all look like they should go out fully profitable. Trade docket for today: /MNQ scalping, /HG, ABNB, AFRM, DKNG, MRNA/MRK, RIVN, SQ, SMCI, MSTR, 0DTE's, New /ZN.

Let's take a look at the markets:
It looks like the markets are taking a pause this morning but it's hard to argue with the heavy bullish price action this week.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.10%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.13% this morning as investors took a breather at the end of an eventful week that saw Donald Trump reclaim the U.S. presidency and the Federal Reserve cut rates.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%, marking its second consecutive rate cut. Fed officials adjusted their language to note that “labor market conditions have generally eased” and reiterated that “the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.” In addition, the statement eliminated the reference to “further” inflation progress, instead noting that inflation “has made progress toward the committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.” “This further recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we move toward a more neutral stance over time,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference. The Fed Chair noted that recent indicators suggest the U.S. economy continues to expand solidly, adding that he does not rule “out or in” a rate cut in December. Powell also stated that the U.S. presidential election will have “no effects” on the Fed’s policy decisions in the near term. 
“No skip signs here. I believe that it is a good thing that the Fed did not lay the blame on the recent labor market slowdown on the hurricanes or strikes. They are just sticking with have generally eased. This statement does not put a December skip in play,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed mostly higher, with the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching new all-time highs. EPAM Systems (EPAM) climbed over +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat Q3 results and issued strong Q4 guidance. Also, Arm Holdings (ARM) gained more than +4% after the semiconductor design company reported better-than-expected FQ2 results. In addition, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) surged over +11% after posting a surprise Q3 profit. On the bearish side, Match Group (MTCH) tumbled more than -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue and providing below-consensus Q4 revenue guidance. Also, MercadoLibre (MELI) plunged over -16% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the company posted weaker-than-expected Q3 adjusted EBITDA.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +3K to 221K, compared with the 223K expected. Also, U.S. Q3 nonfarm productivity rose +2.2% q/q, missing the +2.6% q/q consensus, while Q3 unit labor costs increased +1.9% q/q, stronger than expectations of +1.1% q/q. In addition, U.S. consumer credit rose +$6.00B in September, weaker than expectations of +$12.20B.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 71.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 28.7% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in December.
Today, investors will focus on the University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast the preliminary November figure to be 71.0, up from last month’s figure of 70.5.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.301%, down -0.95%.

My bias or lean today is more neutral. The trend is obviously bullish but I think we are due for a pause.

Let's take a look at the /ES and /NQ for todays setups:
​/ES: Pretty simple levels for me today. 6011 is the key resistance and ATH zone. Bulls need to break that to keep the party going. 5942 to the downside.

/NQ: Same principal applies here. 21266 is the high that needs to be broken for bulls to coninue up. 20982 is support. 

We've got some good things working going into today. If we can get a solid result out of scalping and our 0DTE's it should be a nice finish to the week.