Market analysis for Nov. 5th, 2024

rWelcome back traders. Today is Tuesday so you know what that means. Election day. It's hard to say if we get any appreciable movement in the cash market but this evening in the futures market? That may be a different story. We'll have our live scalping feed running this evening in case we get some movement. We'll be ready.

Yesterday was a good day. Pretty mellow. We are keeping some buying power in reserve for Scalping tonight, Potential moves tomorrow and the FED catalyst on Thursday. Here's a look at how my day went. 

We'll look to trade small again today. 
Trade docket: /MNQ, LUMN, DVN, CVS PLTR, SMCI, VRTX, /6A, /6C, /6J, 0DTE's.

Nothing really changed yesterday in terms of market makeup. We are still clinging on to the 50DMA with the exception of the DIA which is slipping below. This could just be the calm before the storm. We've been waiting for some substantive movement for a while. The next could days could give it to us. 

Technicals are still flashing a slight sell signal. It's hard to say how meaningful it is on a day like today. 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.21%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.27% this morning as investors braced for the closely contested U.S. presidential election, while also awaiting a new round of economic data and corporate earnings reports.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended lower. Constellation Energy (CEG) plunged over -12% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected the proposal that would have increased the amount of power supplied to an Amazon.com data center. Also, megacap technology stocks lost ground, with Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META) sliding more than -1%. In addition, Marriott International (MAR) fell over -1% after the hotel operator cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. On the bullish side, Fox Corp. (FOXA) gained more than +2% after the company posted better-than-expected FQ1 results.
Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. factory orders fell -0.5% m/m in September, weaker than expectations of -0.4% m/m.
Meanwhile, market participants are focusing on the U.S. presidential election. Millions of Americans are beginning to head to the polls to elect their next president following one of modern history’s most tumultuous and dramatic presidential campaigns. With polls indicating a photo-finish outcome, the possibility of a disputed result could extend the vote count for days or even weeks, potentially leading to increased volatility.
Investors are also keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference on Thursday, where he is anticipated to offer guidance on the Fed’s trajectory for interest rate cuts in the upcoming quarters.
“Of course, the U.S. election will play a prominent role in moving financial markets around this week. However, a Federal Reserve policy decision [on Thursday], some light economic releases throughout the week, and roughly 20% of the S&P 500 scheduled to report third-quarter results should also have their fair share of sway on directing stock traffic,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
Third-quarter earnings season continues in full flow, with investors awaiting fresh reports from notable companies today, including Apollo Global Management (APO), Emerson (EMR), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Microchip (MCHP), Yum! Brands (YUM), and DuPont De Nemours (DD). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.3% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3 compared to the previous year, down from +7.9% growth projected in mid-July.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will come in at 53.8, compared to September’s figure of 54.9.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which stood at 55.2 in September. Economists foresee the October figure to be 55.3.
U.S. Trade Balance data will be reported today as well. Economists forecast this figure to stand at -$83.80B in September, compared to the previous figure of -$70.40B.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.308%, down -0.05%.

Intra-day levels haven't really changed from yesterday and I'm not sure how relavant they will be starting today through Thursday and FOMC.

Our plan, once again, is to trade small today just like we did yesterday and then see if we can jump on some movement tonight in the futures market.

My hope for you today is three fold.
#1. Please vote. It sometimes seems futile to me but I do it because it's important to voice you opinion.
#2. Be kind. Anger, hostility and hatred don't serve any greater purpose.
#3. Trade small today and come scalp with us tonight! That could be where the real action materializes today.