Market analysis for Nov. 1st, 2024

Yes that's right. We are into November! This summer went by so fast for me. Todays blog will be short and sweet. I had my left eye operation yesterday so eyesight is still fuzzy and I'm still feeling the drugs! Today is really just about capturing profits, de-risking the account and getting buying power back for next Monday so we can go out and do it all over again. The trade docket is deep today but most are just booking profits from our multiple earnings plays.  Here's a look at how we did yesterday. 

We had a great day that was largely carried by our scalping results. When markets move there is nothing so powerful as a directional trade. 

​Technicals place us in a key zone today. Most of the indices are sitting just on top of their 50DMA with the DIA actually below it. If this level doesn't hold I think we get some decent downside potential. Futures are up this morning. Let's see if they can fight back.

​December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are trending up +0.43% this morning as positive earnings from Intel and Amazon boosted sentiment, with the focus now shifting to the all-important U.S. jobs report that will help clarify the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
Amazon (AMZN) climbed over +5% in pre-market trading after the e-commerce and cloud giant reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and provided solid guidance for the holiday quarter. Also, Intel (INTC) gained more than +5% in pre-market trading after the semiconductor giant reported better-than-expected Q3 revenue and issued an upbeat Q4 revenue forecast.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed lower. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) plummeted over -26% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 results. Also, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbled about -12% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100, adding to Wednesday’s -32% plunge, after accounting firm Ernst & Young LLP resigned as the company’s auditor. In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the tech giant provided a disappointing FQ2 cloud revenue growth forecast. On the bullish side, Paycom Software (PAYC) soared more than +21% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after posting upbeat Q3 results and raising the lower end of its annual revenue guidance.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Thursday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, came in at +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y in September, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Also, U.S. September personal spending rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m, while personal income grew +0.3% m/m, in line with expectations. In addition, the U.S. employment cost index, a key gauge of U.S. labor costs, rose +0.8% q/q in the third quarter, weaker than expectations of +0.9% q/q and the slowest pace of increase in 3 years. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell by -12K to a 5-month low of 216K, compared with the 229K expected.
“We view the data overall as suggesting that upside inflation risks from a strong economy and labor market remain to date muted, and while the Fed and investors will need to keep this under ongoing review given the strength in the data, it is fundamentally constructive for risk and for the ‘soft landing,’” Evercore ISI Vice Chairman Krishna Guha wrote in a note.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 93.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 6.8% chance of no rate change at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Dominion Energy (D), Charter Communications (CHTR), and Wayfair (W) are set to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.3% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3 compared to the previous year, down from +7.9% growth projected in mid-July.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that October Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 106K, compared to September’s figure of 254K.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. Economists foresee the October ISM Manufacturing PMI to arrive at 47.6 and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to be 47.8, compared to the previous values of 47.2 and 47.3, respectively.
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data will be closely watched today. Economists expect October figures to be +0.3% m/m and +4.0% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.4% m/m and +4.0% y/y.
U.S. Construction Spending data will come in today. Economists forecast this figure to be unchanged m/m in September, compared to the previous number of -0.1% m/m.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today as well. Economists foresee this figure to remain steady at 4.1% in October.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.300%, up +0.30%.

Trade docket for today: /MNQ,QQQ scalping, /NQ, /ZN, AAPL, AMZN, CCL, CVNA, FDX, INTC, LRN, PLTR, QQQ, RIOT, SHOP, SPY, TEAM, UPST, WYNN, 0DTE's.

Let's get these profits locked down today! See you in the trading room shortly.