Market analysis for Nov. 12th, 2024

Welcome back traders. I had a mxed day yesterday. My QQQ puts that I carried over from Friday didn't hit...again and while our ROI on our day trades was right in line with expectations, it was a low oonviction day and thus, not a lot of capital got committed. Here's our results below:

Let's take a look at the markets: The technical buy rating continues to hold but we did get a bit of a pause yesterday. Certainly not enough to get a sell signal but, it is the first pause in the "Trump rally" that we've seen. Futures are soft this morning so we'll see if it can turn the market direction.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.20%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.21% this morning as investors assessed the potential policy impact of Donald Trump’s cabinet selections, while also awaiting comments from Federal Reserve officials, the next round of quarterly results, as well as Wednesday’s release of a key U.S. inflation report.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) climbed over +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after rival AbbVie plummeted on news that its two mid-stage trials of a schizophrenia drug failed to meet their primary endpoints. Also, Tesla (TSLA) advanced more than +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100, building on last week’s +26% surge amid expectations that the incoming Trump administration will support the company. In addition, Salesforce (CRM) rose over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after CEO Marc Benioff announced the company would hire 1,000 workers to capitalize on the “amazing momentum” for its AI product. On the bearish side, Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) tumbled about -15% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Edgewater said the company’s Blackwell allocation was at risk.
Meanwhile, investors have raised their exposure to the U.S. equities benchmark to the highest level in three years following Trump’s victory, indicating that the rally might lose momentum, according to Citigroup analysts. The new administration is expected to include prominent China hawks, and strategists are considering the possibility that Trump’s economic policies could drive inflation and influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
Market participants are looking ahead to the U.S. consumer inflation report for October, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday. The CPI is expected to accelerate to +2.6% y/y from +2.4% y/y in September, while the core CPI is projected to remain unchanged from September at +3.3% y/y.
“With the election and another rate cut in the rear-view mirror, the question is whether bulls can keep pushing the market to new highs,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Aside from any potential profit-taking after such a strong surge, this week’s inflation data may determine whether the market pads its gains.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 68.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 31.5% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in December.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Home Depot (HD), Shopify (SHOP), Spotify (SPOT), Sea Limited (SE), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) are set to report their quarterly figures today. 
The U.S. economic data slate is mainly empty on Tuesday. However, investors will focus on speeches from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker.
In addition, the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices will be released today. The SLOOS report will provide updates on the conditions, supply, and demand of bank loans extended to U.S. customers. 
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.368%, up +0.39%.

Volume should pick up today after the light day yesterday but with no big news catalyst today it may be another listless day.

Our trade docket for today: /MNQ, /MCL, /NG, /SI, /ZN, SHOP?, OXY, SPOT, MARA, 0DTE's.

Let's take a look at the intra-day levels:
​/ES: 6037, 6044, 6050 are resistance. 6022, 6011 are support. Below 6011 there is downside potential. 

/NQ: The Nasdaq is more a focus for me today. 21247, 21289, 21339 are resistance with 21207 being PoC on the 2 hr. chart. 21156 and 21097 are support. Below 21097 is some downside potential.

BTC: We are finally getting a bit of a pause in Bitcoin. 90,728 is resistance (and near ATH), 84,480 is support. It's admittedly a wide range that belies the volatility and extreme moves we've had this past week.

We've got some good trade opportunities lined up for us today so let's go make it happen!