Market analsyis for Sept. 3rd, 2024

Welcome back to a shortened holiday trading week. Friday was another bad day for me. That's two days in a row of losses so I'll be working to get back on track today. Here's my results from Friday.

PMI should be the big news catalyst for today. ​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are down -0.46%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are down -0.69% this morning as trading resumed after the Labor Day holiday, with investors looking ahead to a new batch of U.S. labor market data, particularly Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages ended in the green, with the blue-chip Dow notching a new all-time high. Intel (INTC) climbed over +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow after Bloomberg News reported the company was considering various scenarios, including a split of its product design and manufacturing businesses. Also, MongoDB (MDB) soared more than +18% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and raised its FY25 guidance. In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL) advanced over +9% after the semiconductor infrastructure company reported upbeat Q2 results and provided above-consensus Q3 revenue guidance. On the bearish side, Ulta Beauty (ULTA) fell about -4% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting weaker-than-expected Q2 results and cutting its FY24 forecast.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Federal Reserve, came in at +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y in July, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Also, U.S. July personal spending climbed +0.5% m/m, in line with expectations, while July personal income grew +0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, the U.S. Chicago PMI unexpectedly rose to 46.1 in August, stronger than expectations of 45.0. Finally, the University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index was revised upward to 67.9 in August, stronger than expectations of 67.8.
“Investors are seeing another sign of being in a soft landing,” said Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at Newedge Wealth. “It’s another one of those Goldilocks kind of reports really threading a needle right down the center. The market is really getting exactly what it wanted.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 69.0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 31.0% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.
The highlight of this holiday-shortened week will be the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for August. Also, market participants will be eyeing a spate of other economic data releases, including U.S. JOLTs Job Openings, Factory Orders, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate.
Several notable companies like Broadcom (AVGO), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Zscaler (ZS), DocuSign (DOCU), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) are slated to release their quarterly results this week.
In addition, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts this week, which includes anecdotes and commentary on business conditions in each of the 12 Fed districts. The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller will be making appearances this week.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the August ISM manufacturing PMI will come in at 47.5, compared to July’s value of 46.8.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, which stood at 49.6 in July. Economists foresee the August figure to be 48.0.
U.S. Construction Spending data will be reported today as well. Economists foresee this figure to stand at +0.1% m/m in July, compared to the previous number of -0.3% m/m.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.912%, up +0.08%.

Technicals have swung into the dangerous neutral zone. 

From a price action standpoint you can see we remain stuck in a consolidation zone. The DIA and SPY continue the battle to get to a new ATH. 

I don't have much of a bias or lean today. Neutral rated days are typically filled with knee jerk reactions and are tougher to trade than a trend day. 

Let's take a look at the expected move this shortened trading week. Moves and I.V. are right in line with last week.

Our trade docket today: A little lighter on the weekly credit strangles since we have a shortened week. It hurts our premium collection. DLTR, /MCL, DELL, DIA, DJT, FSLR, GLD/NEM?, SMCI, 0DTE's, Scalping. 

Let's look at some intra-day levels for 0DTE trading today:
​/ES; 5638/5649/5664 are resistance levels. 5620/5609/5593 are support.

/NQ; 19534/19595/19616 (PoC on 2hr. chart) are resistance levels. 19478 (200 period M.A.", 19446,19371 are support. 

Let's see if I can put a winning day together are two losers in a row.