Welcome back traders! Well...how was your day yesterday? Those were some big, substantivie moves. It's been a long time since the SP500 took a 2%+ move. The SPY is also having a rotation problem. The largest fund to track the key stock market benchmark, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), is losing to 10 major market segments over the past month.
What do all the recent market leaders have in common? They have little to zero exposure to the mega-cap tech stocks known as the Magnificent 7.
Since July 1, the Mag 7 have collectively declined by more than 12%, as measured by the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS).
The Mag 7 stocks comprise roughly one-third of the cap-weighted S&P 500 index, which until this month had outperformed most of the market segments that are now beating it.
The greatest example of the turn in market performance is the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which is up nearly 8% in the past month, compared to SPY’s 0.8% decline.
Other market segments that are outperforming the S&P 500 include midcap and value stocks, a range of sectors including real estate, consumer discretionary, and financials, as well as commodities and alternative assets like gold and bitcoin.
Let's take a look at my results from yesterday.

We had to roll so many of our puts yesterday that we won't really see the true results of our day until the close of todays market. 
There are a lot of warning signs out there.

No surprise. Technicals are in full sell mode.

Futures are down again this morning as I type. 

And volatility is spiking. I.V. is certainly not a problem now for option sellers.

The motto may be, "Be careful what you wish for." We've (I) have been complaining about low I.V. for what seems like ages. That's not a problem today!

​The real impact of yestedays selloff is still unkown. If you look at the four major indices we trade all it's done is bring us back to previous resistance levels that are now, of course, support.

The question that needs to be answered is, does it hold? If we lose these new support levels it certainly looks like we not only have downside ahead but plenty of it! The NDX looks to have approx. 1,000 points of downside to it's PoC (Point of control purple line)

The SPX has close to 400 points of potential downside before we hit PoC.

It's a big day for economic news. Jobless claims, Durable goods and GDP all hit this morning. 
​In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 suffering its largest single-day percentage drop since October 2022. Tesla (TSLA) plunged over -12% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the electric vehicle giant reported weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and postponed its Robotaxi event to October. Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) slumped more than -5% after the Google parent reported higher-than-expected Q2 capital spending, and its chief indicated that patience would be required to see concrete results from artificial intelligence investments. In addition, Lamb Weston (LW) plummeted over -28% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting downbeat Q4 results and providing below-consensus FY25 guidance. On the bullish side, Enphase Energy (ENPH) surged more than +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported strong Q3 bookings. Also, AT&T (T) rose over +5% after the telecommunications company reported better-than-expected wireless subscriber additions in Q2.
“The market is not impressed with the start of earnings season for the mega tech stocks,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “There was a lot resting on these results and we don’t think that they give clear answers to questions about the effectiveness and profit potential for AI right now.”
Economic data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.5 in July, weaker than expectations of 51.7. Also, U.S. June new home sales unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m to 617K, weaker than expectations of 639K. At the same time, the U.S. S&P Global services PMI rose to 56.0 in July, stronger than expectations of 54.7.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 10.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting and a 98.7% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut at September’s policy meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies such as AbbVie (ABBV), Union Pacific (UNP), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Rtx Corp. (RTX), Honeywell (HON), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the first estimate of U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product, due later in the day. Economists, on average, forecast that U.S. GDP will stand at +2.0% q/q in the second quarter, compared to the first-quarter figure of +1.4% q/q.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders data, which came in at +0.1% m/m in May. Economists foresee the June figure to be +0.3% m/m.
U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to come in at +0.2% m/m in June, compared to the previous number of -0.1% m/m.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will come in today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 237K, compared to last week’s value of 243K.

My bias or lean today is nothing! I was clearly wrong yesterday. I thought we would get a little bounce. It was nothing but straight down all day. With yesterdays move and all the news catalysts coming this morning I'm just going to react to what the market gives us. No intra-day levels for me. Let's just let the day play out and be patient with our entries.

Be patient today and trade small. Stay safe. Nothing wrong with simple preservaton in times like this and remember...cash is a position.

Welcome back my fellow traders! We had another stellar day yesterday. We generate enough trades, daily and weekly that our diversification is pretty strong but that can also eliminate "home run" type days as it's statistically difficult to have all your trades end up winners every day. Yesterday was another exception for us with everything working well. Not shown in our results is a last scalp we took going into the close. That resulted in a $600 profit so we are starting today off on the right foot. Take a look at our results for the day.

Let's take a look at the markets.
​Technicals are back to sell mode after horrible Tesla earnings and poor reception to GOOG results.

Futures are hammered down, as I said, based on poor tech earnings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound today.

​September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are trending down -1.04% this morning as Alphabet’s cautious outlook on AI progress and Tesla’s profit miss, coupled with a delay in its Robotaxi event, weighed on sentiment, while investors awaited U.S. business activity data and the next round of corporate earnings reports.
Tesla (TSLA) slumped over -7% in pre-market trading after the electric vehicle giant reported weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and postponed its Robotaxi event to October. Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) fell more than -3% in pre-market trading after the tech giant reported higher-than-expected Q2 capital spending, and its chief indicated that patience will be required to see concrete results from artificial intelligence investments.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed in the red. UPS (UPS) tumbled over -12% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting weaker-than-expected Q2 results. Also, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) slid more than -7% after the company provided disappointing Q3 guidance. On the bullish side, Pentair (PNR) climbed +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and updated its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to around $4.25 from $4.15-$4.25. In addition, Arm (ARM) rose about +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 following a note from M Science stating that all new Arm deployments in the first half of July were powered by Amazon Graviton GPUs.
Economic data on Tuesday showed that U.S. existing home sales fell -5.4% m/m to 3.89M in June, weaker than expectations of 3.99M. Also, the July Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -17, weaker than expectations of -7.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on, with investors awaiting fresh reports from notable companies today, including IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), General Dynamics (GD), Ford Motor (F), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS).
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the July Manufacturing PMI will come in at 51.7, compared to last month’s value of 51.6.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which stood at 55.3 in June. Economists foresee the preliminary July figure to be 54.7.
U.S. New Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at 639K in June, compared to the previous number of 619K.
The U.S. Building Permits data will come in today. Economists expect June’s figure to be 1.446M, compared to 1.399M in May.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be -2.600M, compared to last week’s value of -4.870M.
Meanwhile, investor focus also rests on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index for June, the Fed’s first-line inflation gauge, which is set for release on Friday. The reading could provide insights into whether policymakers might lower interest rates in September.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting and a 91.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting.

We continue to be stuck around our currrent levels. We need a break out, either up or down, at this point, to establish a new trend. 

Price action from yesterday was more neutral in nature. 

Key economic indicator for us today is the PMI. 

With PMI out this morning I don't usually publish levels as day's like today are more Algo driven. Of note is the fact the the Ether ETF started trading. This isn't having the same impact as the BTC ETF's but should be overall positive for crypto. We should have a better chance today of getting all seven of our daily 0DTE's working.

Let's have a great day folks. If we can make half as much as we did yesterday I'll call that a success.

Welcome back! We had a solid day yesteray to start the week off. Crypto didn't have much directional bias and we waited too long on the NDX to get any decent event contract 0DTES but everything else clicked for us. Here are our results. 

The market held its ground yesterday as we continue to wait for the next big directional move. 

We've moved back to a slightly bullish technical bias.

My lean today is neutral. The "Magnificent seven" are due for earnings and I'm sure that will give us some directional push.

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.02%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are down -0.11% this morning as investor attention shifted from U.S. politics to a deluge of corporate earnings reports, with particular emphasis on results from “Magnificent Seven” companies Tesla and Alphabet.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended higher. IQVIA Holdings (IQV) surged over +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its FY24 guidance. Also, ON Semiconductor (ON) advanced more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company announced it had signed a multi-year deal with Volkswagen to be the main supplier of a complete power box solution for its next-generation electric vehicles. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA) rose over +4% after Reuters reported that the company is developing a version of its new flagship AI chips for the China market that will comply with existing U.S. export controls. On the bearish side, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) tumbled more than -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after several brokerages downgraded their ratings and reduced their price targets on the stock following a software update from the company that triggered a global IT outage last Friday. Also, Verizon (VZ) slid over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after reporting weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue.
Second-quarter earnings season is gathering pace, with investors awaiting new reports from big-name companies such as Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), Visa (V), Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris International (PM), UPS (UPS), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and General Motors (GM). 
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Existing Home Sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that June Existing Home Sales will stand at 3.99M, compared to last month’s figure of 4.11M.
The U.S. Richmond Manufacturing Index will be reported today as well. Economists estimate July’s figure to be -7, compared to the previous number of -10.
Meanwhile, investor focus also rests on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index for June, the Fed’s first-line inflation gauge, which is set for release on Friday. The reading could provide insights into whether policymakers might lower interest rates in September.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month and a 91.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.241%, down -0.47%.

Let's have another great day folks! I.V. is still pretty strong!

Welcome back to a new week of trading folks! We start this week with a little better I.V. than we've had lately. That's a hopeful sign! We've got our daily /MNQ trade working and we were finally able to get some good premium on the Thetafairy last week. We have a working order on a new one going as I type. Last Fridays results were a mixed bag for me. I took a big swing on Bitcoin that missed and scalping was a loss. I did carry over a small long scalp from Friday that looks to print profits at the open today. Here's a look at my results from Friday.

Let's take a look at the market technicals. Futures are up smartly, as I type but technicals are still bearish. 

That makes sense as we've had over a week of nothing but down. SPY and QQQ are back to kety support levels and the parabolic upward moves on IWM and DIA have taken a breather.

​This week, the retreat from high-flying tech names into more rate-sensitive ones began to take hold, with both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 posting their second-largest weekly losses of the year. This shift is driven by growing optimism among traders about potential interest rate cuts, which would favor small-cap stocks and companies facing higher financing costs. Notably, the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates in September. In other news;

• SMCI to join the Nasdaq 100 on Monday
• Trump opposes rate cuts
• CRWD update causes global outage
• META betting big on eyewear?
• Record $14.2B spent during AMZN Prime Day

We’re now seven sessions into this rotation. Will small caps dig in and continue higher or was this just a flash in the pan? Let’s get into the charts and see how things are looking. ​After finding nearly perfect resistance at the 1.618 golden Fibonacci extension last week, the SPY reversed sharply lower to find itself at the bottom of the ascending channel, closing the week at $548.99 (-1.96%). A weekly bearish engulfing candle suggests the possibility of further downside, which is supported by the price closing below the daily 8/21 EMA cloud.

​The pain continued for the QQQ this week, which closed at $475.24 (-3.96%). With the price breaking down below the ascending channel and a seemingly imminent bearish 8/21 EMA cross on the horizon, the area of low volume looks primed for an eventual test.

​The rotation into small caps continued this week, gaining over 6% before a strong reversal on Wednesday. Despite this, the IWM closed higher for the second week in a row at $216.84 (+1.74%), but put in a concerning Shooting Star weekly candle as the price fell back into the ascending channel. Bulls will be looking for the 8/21 EMA cloud to act as support next week.

A lot of the weakness in the overall indices can be traced to the semi's which just plain got beat up last week

Here's a snapshot of the economic calendar for this week. Thurs. and Fri. are the days I'm targeting for this weeks biggest trade docket.

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.47%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +0.59% this morning as investors looked past Joe Biden’s exit from his presidential reelection campaign and awaited a slew of corporate earnings reports, with a particular focus on results from “Magnificent Seven” companies Tesla and Alphabet, as well as the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge later in the week.
U.S. President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign on Sunday and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. In a post on X, Biden said that he will stay in his role as President and Commander in Chief until his term ends in January 2025 and will address the nation later this week. “It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden wrote. The move was widely anticipated following Biden’s poor debate performance in June and amid polls indicating a growing likelihood of an election win by former President Donald Trump in November.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages closed in the red, with the benchmark S&P 500 dropping to a 2-1/2 week low and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 falling to a 3-1/2 week low. CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) plunged over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after a botched upgrade of its cybersecurity software brought down Microsoft’s systems and triggered a global IT outage. Also, chip stocks lost ground, with Intel (INTC) sliding more than -5%, ON Semiconductor (ON) dropping over -3%, and Nvidia (NVDA) falling more than -2%. In addition, Travelers Cos. (TRV) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after reporting weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue. On the bullish side, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) surged more than +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 results. Also, Starbucks (SBUX) climbed over +6% following a report from the Wall Street Journal that activist investor Elliott Management has built a “sizeable” stake in the coffee chain.
Second-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear this week, with investors awaiting fresh reports from major companies such as Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Comcast (CMCSA), ServiceNow (NOW), Texas Instruments (TXN), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), AbbVie (ABBV), Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY), Visa (V), 3M Company (MMM), Coca-Cola (KO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), American Airlines Group (AAL), and United Parcel Service (UPS).
On the economic data front, the June reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight in the coming week. Also, market participants will be monitoring a spate of other economic data releases, including the U.S. GDP (preliminary), S&P Global Composite PMI (preliminary), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), S&P Global Services PMI (preliminary), Existing Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index, Building Permits, Goods Trade Balance, New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Federal Reserve officials are in a blackout period before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the end of July, so they are prohibited from making public comments this week.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at July’s monetary policy meeting and a 91.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
The U.S. economic data slate is mainly empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.236%, down -0.07%

Let's take a look at I.V. and expected moves this week. We have a 1.3% expected move on the SPY with 17% I.V. Guess what? That's plenty to work with!!!! We've been waiting for this. With about 30% more IV we are finally back to a decent risk/reward ratio on credit trades.

The QQQ's are even better.

Let's have a great day today and a great week. I think the market has given us all the tools we need for us to have a successful result.

Welcome to Friday traders! The gateway to the weekend! We had a pretty good day yesterday and our Event Contract 0DTE's contributed a bunch. Here's our results. 

A couple on notes on our trades: We had a very quick, post-earnings take profit on TSM. We also have NFLX and ISRG earnings trades that we should get a profitable exit this morning at the open. We restarted our /MNQ ratio setup last night. I anticipate this to be a near daily setup now with the goal of bringing in $100 a day per contract traded. We'll go into more detail on that setup in todays zoom. We also got a Theta Fairy working and I want to discuss how we can get that back to a more full time trade today. We had two 0DTE's on BTC and two on ETH yesterday. As you know, we strive to make at least $1,000 a day on our 0DTE's and with just $3,200 of buying power the crypto 0DTE's brought in almost $400 of that goal. If you're not trading event contracts you're missing out on some opportunites to create edge and its the best way I know of to day trade crypto. You can get the platfrom setup for free and trade with as little as $20 dollars. Check it out. 

Let's take a look at the markets. With yesterdays sell off we flip back to a more decisive sell rating on the technicals. 

A couple of interesting notes; ​S&P 500 was down more than 1%. What was telling was the breadth.

​Is this the strongest market ever? The S&P 500 has hit 37 all-time highs this year, the most since 2021. The index has already seen more new records than in every year since 2016, except for 2017 and 2021. It is on pace to hit the 3rd most all-time highs in history, only behind 2021 and 1995 which saw 70 and 77 records. Overall, the S&P 500 is up ~17% year-to-date which marks the 12th best start to a year in the entire stock market history. Will the market hit over 70 new highs this year?

​$VIX overbought on daily RSI. VIX rarely stays overbought long... The past four times this has happened, it's marked multi-month tops for the VIX.

Here's a snapshot of the major indices we trade. Of note yesterday was the fact that the parabolicly bullish IWM and DIA also joined in on the sell off. 

Futures are slightly up to mixed as I type. I've got a long QQQ scalp on that I carried over from yesterday that could use some more bullishness.

​Computer systems failed worldwide on Friday, disrupting services at airlines, banks, and the London Stock Exchange after a widely used cybersecurity program crashed and Microsoft separately reported issues with its cloud services. CrowdStrike Holdings alerted customers on Friday that its Falcon Sensor threat-monitoring product was causing crashes in Microsoft’s Windows operating system. At the same time, it was unclear what caused the issues, which coincided with disruptions in Microsoft’s Azure cloud and 365 services.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended lower. Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) tumbled over -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the world’s largest pizza company reported weaker-than-expected Q2 total domestic comparable sales growth and suspended its target of opening more than 1,100 global net stores. Also, mega-cap technology stocks lost ground, with Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) falling more than -2%. In addition, Elevance Health (ELV) slid over -3% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy. On the bullish side, D.R. Horton (DHI) surged more than +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the homebuilder reported upbeat Q3 results and announced a new $4.0 billion stock buyback program.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +20K to 243K, compared with the 229K expected. Also, the U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 13.9, stronger than expectations of 2.7. In addition, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.2% m/m in June, better than expectations of -0.3% m/m.
“The Fed asked to see more evidence of a cooling economy, and for the most part, they’ve gotten it,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Add [Thursday’s] weekly jobless claims to the list of rate-cut-friendly data points. The path to September remains open.”
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that the Fed may need to cut interest rates soon to prevent a sharper deterioration in the labor market, which has cooled in recent months. While the Fed’s battle against inflation continues, several months of improving data have reassured him that officials are on course to reduce inflation to their 2% target, Goolsbee said. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that some recent inflation data has been “really good,” but the Fed has not yet attained price stability. “We’re not there yet,” Daly said. “We don’t have price stability right now and we need to be very confident that we’re on a sustainable path to achieve it.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July FOMC meeting and a 95.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at September’s policy meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like American Express (AXP), Schlumberger (SLB), Travelers (TRV), Halliburton (HAL), and Regions Financial (RF) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday. However, investors will likely focus on speeches from New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.192%, up +0.12%.

Let's have another profitable day and I hope you all have a safe and enjoyable weekend!

Welcome back traders! We had an O.K. day yesterday. I came close to a full profit on my NDX debit 0DTE but ended up rolling the put side at the last minute at a debit so I'll need to work that today. It was really scalping that hurt me the most. Apparently its not profitable to be bullish in a bearish price action. I'll try to be better today. Here's our results.

Let's take a look at the markets. Technicals have moved to bearish after yesterdays price action.

Technicals are tenuous enough that any decent sized move today could swing it either way. Another down day could break us below some substantive support and be very bearish. A decent sized up day and we could be right back to bullish.

Our short on the IWM yesterday via the micro futures worked like a charm. It and the DIA certainly seem overstretched here.
​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.18%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +0.41% this morning, signaling a partial rebound from yesterday’s slump as an upbeat earnings report from Taiwan’s TSMC helped restore sentiment in the tech sector, while investors awaited a new round of U.S. economic data, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, as well as corporate earnings reports, with the spotlight on results from streaming giant Netflix.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed mixed. Spirit Airlines (SAVE) plunged over -10% after the carrier lowered its Q2 revenue guidance. Also, chip stocks declined due to concerns about tighter U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China, with ASML Holding NV (ASML) slumping more than -12% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) sliding over -10%, and Nvidia (NVDA) falling more than -6%. In addition, Five Below (FIVE) tumbled over -25% after the discount retailer provided downbeat Q2 guidance and announced the resignation of Joel Anderson from his roles as President and CEO. On the bullish side, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose more than +3% after the pharmaceutical giant reported better-than-expected Q2 results.
Economic data on Wednesday showed that U.S. industrial production climbed +0.6% m/m in June, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Also, U.S. June housing starts rose +3.0% m/m to 1.353M, stronger than expectations of 1.300M, while U.S. building permits rose +3.4% m/m to 1.446M in June, stronger than expectations of 1.400M. In addition, U.S. June manufacturing production rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that the U.S. economy expanded at a modest pace heading into the third quarter, with several regions reporting flat or declining activity. The report also highlighted modest overall price increases, alongside slight growth in employment. Consumer spending was little changed. Nearly every district “mentioned retailers discounting items or price-sensitive consumers only purchasing essentials, trading down in quality, buying fewer items, or shopping around for the best deals,” the report said. Looking forward, businesses anticipated the slowing to persist. “Expectations for the future of the economy were for slower growth over the next six months due to uncertainty around the upcoming election, domestic policy, geopolitical conflict, and inflation,” according to the Beige Book.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that the economy is nearing a point where the central bank can cut interest rates but noted he’d like to see a “bit more evidence” that inflation is on a sustained downward path. “While I don’t believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted,” Waller said. Also, New York Fed President John Williams remarked that inflation data in recent months has been encouraging, but he requires more evidence in the upcoming months to gain the confidence needed to reduce borrowing costs. In addition, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the Fed requires more evidence that the disinflation process is sustained before cutting interest rates.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at July’s monetary policy meeting and a 91.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting.
Second-quarter earnings season gathers steam, and investors await new reports from notable companies today, including Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Blackstone (BX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), Cintas (CTAS), DR Horton (DHI), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), and KeyCorp (KEY).
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will arrive at 2.7, compared to last month’s value of 1.3.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists estimate this figure to stand at 229K, compared to last week’s number of 222K.
The U.S. Conference Board Leading Index will be reported today as well. Economists expect June’s figure to be -0.3% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.5% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.

Lot's of earning plays today. I'll see you all in the trading room!

Welcome to the jungle. The rotation out of techs continues this morning. We've been setting up for this for weeks now. Some of our members patience was being tested but the payoff seems near.

Our results yesterday were perfect. When I say perfect I mean everything we touched hit for a full profit. I'm humble enough to always say that when those rare days occur it's luck. That's just not how trading works. In fact, one of the biggest challenges I see with new traders is the idea that if they get good enough, somehow, they will be able to avoid losses. Losses are a part of the game and will ALWAYS happen. All we can do as traders in put our selves in the best position we can. Here's our results from yesterday.

A couple quick notes on the above matrix. These are JUST our day trades. We work 15-30 other weekly trades. I'm also going to add our /MNQ futures trade to this matrix starting today. We are currently short with a put cover that we are rolling each day. I have four short /MNQ contracts using about $9,000 in buying power and generating about $120 a day in cash flow. This hedge can be long or short, depending on my market bias but obviously right now, with the markets bouncing around all time highs, I'm short. 
Also a quick note, once again, about the importance of having multiple irons in the fire. Scalping has been a huge help to us. Today looks to be another nice opportunity. Our event contract 0DTE's have been amazing. Sure we only had $18.50 in the NDX yesterday but 370% ROI is not a bad risk/reward!
Finally, I will say this again. I don't know of another place where you can go to find seven 0DTE opportunities a day! Combine that with our track record this year of an annualized return of $400,000 dollars on about $35,000 of capital. Here's our results YTD of our documented SPX/NDX combos. Almost $160,000 profit on NDX and almost $60,000 profit on the SPX. Add in about $8,000 of profit on our Event contract 0DTEs and the fact that I don't know of another place that offers up daily 0DTE opportunities on both Bitcoin and Etherium and I feel comfortable saying, we're doing pretty good.

On to the markets.
Gold has broken out to a new ATH. This is bearish for equities. 

1. Tech stocks are falling like we are entering a bear market
2. Small cap stocks are rising like the bull market just began
3. Gold prices are rising like we are entering a recession
4. Bond prices are falling like the economy is strong
5. Oil prices are falling like rate cuts are cancelled
6. The S&P 500 is rising like rate cuts already began
This is a very confused market!

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are down -0.79%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are down -1.22% this morning as concerns over stricter U.S. restrictions on Chinese trade and semiconductor technology weighed on sentiment, while investors awaited a fresh batch of U.S. economic data and the next round of corporate earnings.
Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday that the Biden administration has informed allies that it is contemplating deploying the most stringent trade measures possible if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding persist in providing China with access to advanced semiconductor technology. Seeking leverage with allies, the U.S. is considering whether to implement a measure known as the foreign direct product rule, which allows the country to impose controls on foreign-made products using even the smallest amount of American technology, according to the report. The U.S. is presenting this idea to officials in Tokyo and the Hague as a scenario that is becoming increasingly probable if these countries do not strengthen their own measures against China.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the green, with the benchmark S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow notching new all-time highs. Match Group (MTCH) climbed over +7% after activist investor Starboard Value disclosed a stake of around 6.6% in the dating app company and advocated for a turnaround or potential sale. Also, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) advanced more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the insurer reported upbeat Q2 results and backed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, Bank of America (BAC) rose over +5% after the number two U.S. lender reported better-than-expected Q2 net interest income and provided an above-consensus Q4 net interest income forecast. On the bearish side, Charles Schwab (SCHW) plunged more than -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting fewer-than-expected new brokerage accounts in Q2.
Economic data on Tuesday showed that U.S. retail sales were unchanged m/m in June, stronger than expectations of -0.3% m/m, while May’s reading of +0.1% m/m was revised upward to +0.3% m/m. Also, U.S. June core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m. In addition, the U.S. import price index was unchanged m/m in June, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. 
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in July and a 93.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.
Second-quarter earnings season is gathering pace, with investors awaiting fresh reports from notable companies today, including Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Elevance Health (ELV), Prologis (PLD), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Airlines (UAL), and Ally Financial (ALLY).
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Industrial Production data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that June Industrial Production will arrive at +0.3% m/m, compared to the previous figure of +0.9% m/m.
The U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data for June will be reported today. Economists forecast Building Permits to be 1.400M and Housing Starts to be 1.300M, compared to the previous numbers of 1.399M and 1.277M, respectively.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will come in today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be -0.900M, compared to last week’s value of -3.443M.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
Later today, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts, which includes anecdotes and commentary on business conditions in each of the 12 Fed districts. The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.159%, down -0.07%.

With the slide in futures this morning we are back to Neutral technical rating

I've been taling about the laggard indices of the IWM and DIA for a long, long time. I said that this divergence won't last. It never does. Either the SPX and NDX will come down or the IWM and DIA will come up. It looks like it's the latter. Talk about parabolic moves!

We are currently short the NDX via an /MNQ futures position. I'm looking today to take a possible short in /M2K.
Bollinger bands and Keltner channels are blown through. Move is wayyyyyy beyond Avg. True range. Stoc and RSI are pinned at overbought. 

We have had so much success with our VTI monthly swing trade. 2-4% a month profit. Easy peasy setup. Doesn't need a lot of monitoring. Just a really, really great trade. We haven't gotten a clear signal this month to get one in place! Today is the day. We'll be lucky to make 1.5% this go around but...it's only a three day trade!

Let's have a great day folks! Who knows what the market will do today? Who know how our trades will turn out? There are no guarantees in trading but....I'm confident that today, just like most days, our trading system will offer us the ability and opportunity to make more than $1,000 dollars today. Just like it does almost every day. Will we succeed? Check back tomorrow! We don't know right now but...the opportunity is there for us with the systems we've created. For that, I'm grateful.

Welcome back traders. I'm back from the mountains and lake. It was a nice break but I can't help but think of the scalping opportunities I missed on Fri. and Mon. That price action has been amazing. We'll be back in full swing today with our scalping program. We had a good day yesterday, although I had about 35% of the normal amount of capital committed. That was partially because some positions ran too fast but also deliberate. The swings going into the close have been dramatic. We'll look today to get earlier exits on our 0DTE's to avoid nail biting it into the close. 

Technicals are still pointing upwards.

The IWM appears to be going parabolic.

​In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher, with the benchmark S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow posting new record highs. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) soared over +31% after a failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on Saturday evening potentially boosted his chances of winning the presidential election in November. Also, Apple (AAPL) closed up more than +1% at a record high after Morgan Stanley named the stock as a “Top Pick” with a price target of $273. In addition, Goldman Sachs (GS) gained over +2% as upbeat Q2 results overshadowed plans to moderate the pace of buybacks. On the bearish side, Macy’s (M) tumbled more than -11% after the department store chain announced that it had ended buyout discussions with Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management.
Economic data on Monday showed that the Empire State manufacturing index fell to -6.60 in July, weaker than expectations of -5.50.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in an interview on Monday that second-quarter economic data has given policymakers greater confidence that inflation is trending towards the central bank’s 2% target, potentially setting the stage for near-term interest rate cuts. Powell also remarked that the labor market has shifted into better balance and that monetary lags imply the Fed can take action before achieving the 2% inflation target. At the same time, the Fed chief made clear that he would not send “any signals” regarding the timing of rate cuts. Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly remarked that inflation is decreasing in a manner that boosts confidence it is moving towards 2%. “Inflation is coming down and it’s doing so in a way that confidence is growing that we’re getting nearer a sustainable pace of getting inflation back down to 2%,” Daly said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 8.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at July’s monetary policy meeting and a 99.4% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that June Retail Sales will stand at -0.3% m/m, compared to last month’s figure of +0.1% m/m.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at -0.1% m/m in May. Economists foresee the June figure to be +0.1% m/m.
The U.S. Import Price Index for June will be reported today. Economists anticipate the import price index to be +0.2% m/m, compared to the previous figure of -0.4% m/m.
U.S. Business Inventories data will come in today as well. Economists foresee this figure to arrive at +0.4% m/m in May, compared to the previous number of +0.3% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.176%, down -1.26%.

Let's have a great day folks. Premiums are still low but if the price action today is anything like our last two sessions, we should be able to find opportunities.

Welcome back to the new week traders! The last few days have served notice, once again, that if you don’t like what’s happening just wait. It will change. Thurs. and Fri. saw us finally getting some movement in the market. The weekend say the assassination attempt against former Pres. Trump. It servers notice that we should always expect the unexpected. It’s also my wish that we, as human beings, may unite in the sanctity of life. Our ability to peacefully disagree is something we should all strive for. My heart goes out to the innocents that were wounded and killed.

Let's take a look at where we are in the markets to start off the week. Technicals have swung us back into bullish mode.

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.39%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +0.52% this morning as investors increased their bets on Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election following an assassination attempt, with the focus shifting to Wall Street’s earnings season, key economic data releases, as well as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials.
Donald Trump was shot in the ear during a Saturday campaign rally, an attack that left the Republican presidential candidate’s face streaked with blood. His security agents swiftly surrounded him, but he soon emerged, pumping his fist in the air and mouthing the words “Fight! Fight! Fight!” The Republican National Convention begins on Monday and continues through Thursday when presidential candidate Donald Trump will give remarks, marking his first public appearance since the attempted assassination. The dollar rose while longer-maturity bonds fell on Monday as investors anticipated that Trump’s return to the White House would lead to relaxed fiscal policy and increased trade tariffs.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages ended in the green, with the benchmark S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow notching new record highs. Bank of New York Mellon (BK) climbed over +5% after reporting better-than-expected Q2 net interest income. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with ARM Holdings (ARM) rising more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Intel (INTC) advancing nearly +3% to lead gainers in the Dow. In addition, Carvana (CVNA) closed up over +4% after BTIG initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and a $155 price target. On the bearish side, Wells Fargo (WFC) slumped about -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 as the lender’s Q2 results were impacted by higher-than-expected costs.
Economic data on Friday showed the U.S. June producer price index for final demand rose +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.3% y/y. Also, the U.S. core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased +3.0% y/y in June, higher than the +2.5% y/y consensus and accelerating from the +2.6% y/y pace in May (revised from +2.3% y/y). However, categories used in calculating the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, were not so dire. Finally, the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell to an 8-month low of 66.0 in July, weaker than expectations of 68.5. At the same time, the University of Michigan’s July year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 2.9% from 3.0% in June, in line with expectations, while 5-year implied inflation expectations eased to 2.9%, better than expectations of no change at 3.0%.
“We continue to expect the Fed to join the global rate-cutting cycle in September, with 50 basis points of easing this year,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 4.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month and a 91.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at September’s policy meeting.
Earnings season picks up steam this week, with results expected from several more big banks, including Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), and Morgan Stanley (MS). Also, notable companies, including Netflix (NFLX), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Blackrock (BLK), Progressive (PGR), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Alcoa (AA), U.S. Bancorp (USB), United Airlines (UAL), Ally Financial (ALLY), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Schlumberger (SLB), American Express (AXP), Halliburton (HAL), and Travelers (TRV), are slated to post quarterly updates this week.
In addition, investors will be monitoring a spate of economic data releases this week, including U.S. Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, Export Price Index, Import Price Index, Business Inventories, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and Leading Index.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to participate in an interview hosted by the Economic Club of Washington later in the day. A host of other Fed officials will also be making appearances throughout the week, including Daly, Kugler, Barkin, Waller, Logan, Bowman, Williams, and Bostic.
Today, investors will likely focus on the U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the July NY Empire State manufacturing index will arrive at -5.50, compared to the previous value of -6.00.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.206%, up +0.50%.

The attempt on Trump is political but it also affects markets. The dollar. The indices and, of course, DJT. We hold a short position in that which we've been cash flowing. It looks to hurt us today with this massive shift in opinion. It will be interesting to see if this shift in public opinion will look into the election.

Finally! We've been talking about the lagging indices, namely the IWM and DIA. They aren't lagging anymore. The Dow has now found some legs and the IWM has woken up! After a few months of outflows, there is now a focused inflow of captial into the Small caps.
​

Let's take a look at I.V. and the expected moves for the week. For all the movement we've had over the last three trading sessions, our I.V. is still in the tank. It looks like, only a decisive downward move will help this.

That rotation was pretty clear on Fridays session. 

Market internals are pretty strong. 

Friday's performance was strong in all sectors with weakness only showing up in META and some reporting bank stocks.

Let's have a great week folks!