Welcome back traders! Yesterday was another solid day for us as we've stuck to our super focused approach that we took on mid last week. Every day we have members in the trading room asking, "what about this trade, what about this trade?" Nope. We've stuck to a very focused approach. Eskewed a lot of our normal weekly trades and wouldn't you know it, every day of this downturn has been nicely profitable for us. Last Fridays was huge. Scoring a $7,500 profit on one setup, which is nice, but we've done that before. That's not new. What was special was the $390 of total risk we took to garner that win. Yesterday we banked a 100% profit on our short VIX trade. Turning $5,600 into over $11,000. Our NDX stand alone 0DTE that we rolled to today has $16,000 of potential profit in it. Today could be a big one. Here's how our 0DTE trades went yesterday. 

With over $250,000 dollars of documented profits from our 0DTE trades, I'm just absolutely floored. I couldn't ask for any better results than this. Let's do our best to keep it going.
Let's take a look at whats happening in the markets.
In 2020 the stock market crashed 35%
In 2008 the stock market crashed 55%
In 1987 the stock market crashed 35%
In 1973 the stock market crashed 50%
In 1929 the stock market crashed 90%
What's the take away? #1. Markets ALWAYS crash! They always have and they always will. It's how it works folks. People were asking, "what's wrong?" "what happened?" Nothing! It's how it works folks. This is why we ALWAYS have negative delta, bearish positions on! #2. Guess what happened after all those crashes? The market went on to hit a new all time high! That's also how it works! Takeaway: Don't get bogged down in all the daily movements. Just trade what you see and always have crash protection in place. It certainly served us well.

​Futures are up nicely as I type. Technicals are not quite back to bullish but they are trying.

Does this mean we are out of the danger zone? Ah....let's not make that call quite yet. In bear markets we have huge one or two day short covering rallys. In bull markets we have one or two day selloffs. It doesn't neccessarily me a change of direction. Take a look at a few potential outcomes here. I'm not saying this is where we are going. Just be aware.

The Goldman Panic Index is flashing panic. Past times were close to fairly major lows fwiw. ​

It's not just jobs. The unwinding of the Yen carry trade has also done a lot of damage.

You know what else is affecting the markets and adding to volatility? Apparently everyone  is a day trader now! Long term "buy and hold" is becoming less and less of a thing. 

One last thing I'll add. US MANUFACTURING SECTOR HAS BEEN IN RECESSION FOR 22 MONTHS, THE LONGEST PERIOD SINCE 1990s We have to keep in mind, however, that manufacturing accounts for only 10% of US GDP. On the other hand, the services sector reflects ~70% of the US GDP

Here's some key areas I'm looking at on the SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA.
​
SPY is not flashing a buy or sell signal today. My two key levels are the purple line on the downside which is the PoC (Point of control)  515.74 and the teal line up above which is the next big resistance level. We almost got there yesterday before selling off into the close. That's 533.61. Between here is just chop.

QQQ has been beat up more than SPY. The one main bullish note you can make is that it has recaptured it's 200DMA (red line). That's no small feat. I'd like to see it break above it's PoC of 440.53. The next resistance is the blue line at 460. The QQQ's have a lot of damage to unwind. Holding above that 200DMA is key.

IWM has given me flashbacks of Mister Toads wild ride at the local amusement park. What goes parabolic usually retraces and that's certainly been the case here.  We went straight up and then straight down and guess what? We landed right back where we were for most of June and July. That purple line is the PoC. It's, as Happy Gilmore likes to say, "it's home". ​ I expect less volatility with IWM now.

DIA has has a very similar trajectory as IWM. Going near parabolic to the upside then summarily giving it all back. It too is now hovering just above its PoC and back to where it just hung out most of the last two months. 

Tech, for the first time in a while, actually participated in the rebound yesterday. 

We still need a larger portion of stocks to be above their 50/200DMA's. 

Have a good day. We've got some monster potential today. That's all we can ask. Now it's up to us to make it happen. 

Another day. Another 500 point slide in the NDX! We've been so well posiitoned for this slide that it's actually been a drag on our portfolio over the last month as the market pushed to new highs. No longer. We have scored big on these downturns. Yesterday was a tad bit disappointing to me as the NDX ran back up too quick and I couldn't get enough buying power put to use but....you never know what to expect on days like this so having a bunch of dry powder makes sense. Here's a look at our days results. 

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.55%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +0.56% this morning, signaling a partial rebound from yesterday’s dramatic selloff as a hotter-than-expected ISM services report and comments from Federal Reserve officials eased fears of a recession, while investors looked ahead to a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed lower, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 falling to 3-month lows and the blue-chip Dow dropping to a 7-week low. Nvidia (NVDA) slumped over -6% after The Information reported that the company’s upcoming artificial intelligence chips will be delayed by three months or more due to design flaws. Also, megacap technology stocks lost ground, with Amazon.com (AMZN) sliding more than -4% and Microsoft (MSFT) falling over -3%. In addition, Apple (AAPL) dropped more than -4% after Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in the iPhone maker by nearly 50% in the second quarter. On the bullish side, Kellanova (K) surged over +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Reuters reported that candy giant Mars was exploring an acquisition of the company.
Economic data on Monday showed that the U.S. ISM services index rose to 51.4 in July, stronger than expectations of 51.0. At the same time, the U.S. S&P Global services PMI unexpectedly fell to 55.0 in July’s final estimate from the mid-month reading of 56.0 and 55.3 in June.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated on Monday that the central bank’s role is not to react to one month of weaker labor data, adding that markets are much more volatile than Fed actions. Goolsbee noted that there are cautionary signs, such as the increase in consumer delinquencies, but economic growth continues at a “fairly steady level.” “As you see jobs numbers come in weaker than expected but not looking yet like recession, I do think you want to be forward-looking of where the economy is headed for making the decisions,” Goolsbee said. Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that the labor market is softening and indicated the Fed should start reducing interest rates in the upcoming quarters, yet she refrained from concluding that the labor market has begun to weaken significantly. “We have now confirmed that the labor market is slowing, and it is extremely important that we not let it slow so much that it tips itself into a downturn,” she said. Daly stressed that the timing and magnitude of rate cuts will “depend a lot on the incoming information.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 77.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in September.
In other news, the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, released on Monday, showed that a smaller share of U.S. banks reported tighter credit standards in the second quarter. The net share of U.S. banks that tightened standards on commercial and industrial loans for mid-sized and large businesses dropped to 7.9%, the lowest since 2022, down from 15.6% in the previous report. Banks generally tightened lending standards for consumers, particularly for subprime credit card and subprime auto loans, the Fed said.
Second-quarter earnings season continues in full flow, with investors awaiting fresh reports from notable companies today, including Amgen (AMGN), Caterpillar (CAT), Uber Technologies (UBER), Airbnb (ABNB), Duke Energy (DUK), and Super Micro Computer (SMCI).
On the economic data front, investors will likely focus on U.S. Trade Balance data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists foresee this figure to stand at -$72.50B in June, compared to the previous figure of -$75.10B.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.833%, up +1.41%.

Sell signals abound right now. 

More important, the IWM and QQQ's are threatening to break below their 200DMA. That would be very bearish. 

For our trade docket today we are going to continue what has been so successful for us over the last three trading days of chaos. I'll continue to scalp with the /MNQ futures and covers. I may take advantage of the potential pop on the open with NVDA to close it and reset it later this week. I'm going to work a cover on the bullish QQQ debit/0DTE. A cover on the bearish NDX debit/0DTE and a stand alone NDX as well as a stand alone SPX 0DTE. Once price action calms down we'll return to our normally scheduled trading. I did put on a short VIX position yesterday.  This is a $5,600 position and it's completely directional. There are no options on it. I believe we retrace back down to the $20 dollar range. That would be an approx. $7,0000 dollar profit. Shorting spiked I.V. has always been a huge success for me. Unfortunately we don't get spikes like this very often. 

We have a great trade called the VTI swing trade. We didn't get one on this last month because the sell signal hit so quickly but I like to use the VTI to gauge overall market health. You can see that not only are we in full sell mode but it's happening on increasing red volume.

We've had some really good days lately as the market churns and drops. We'll stick to what's been working for us and focus mainly on our 0DTE's today. Stay sharp folks. 

Welcome back traders! This coming week looks to be a huge potential gain for us! Something we've been setting up for a while now. More on that in a minute. Let's take a look at our past Friday results and see how that will continue to play out for us this week. 

We had an exceptional day on Friday. Now, there were a lot of traders who shorted on Friday and did well also but, I don't know many who had the setup we had. Risking $390 to make a potential $7,500 payoff. We've had plenty of $7,500 profit days but that usually involves deploying 50K+ of captial and taking much bigger risks.

Folks, global markets are tanking. THIS IS WHEN IT MATTERS WHO YOU FOLLOW AND WHAT TRADES YOU DO.
This is where a trade setup is laid bare for all to see. Is it a turd or a diamond? Late last week we talked about a potential market downturn. We loaded up on our NDX debit/0DTE setup. It had a pretty big payoff potential of $36,000 potential profit but it's the daily cash flow potential of over $7,000 dollar a day that's exciting!

If you are trading with us you've seen up pull in our horns. Trim our market exposure. Load up on a bearish stance. Focus more closely on just one or two trades a day. That focus will continue for us today. No promises. No guarantees, of course but....I'd be dissapointed if we couldn't haul in $10,000 in premium today! Maybe we will. Maybe we won't but, that's certainly on the table today as a very real potential.
Let's take a look at the markets.
​The one day VIX is soaring.

This is the best premium we've seen all year! Be careful though. The premium skew is heavy! Puts are way more expensive than calls so if you're an option seller you're NOT going to get compensated as well on the call side. That means you need to sell puts but who wants to sell puts in front of this freight train? Well...we do! Our NDX debit is set up perfectly to take advantage of days like today. We've got three weeks left to work this trade daily with 0DTE's. Let's hope the market stays weak for  the rest of this month!

Technicals are obviously flashing bearish this morning.

The market breadth is ugly we more stocks dipping below their 50DMA. 

3.5% expected move this week on the SPY!

5.2% expected move for the QQQ's! This is what we've been waiting for folks!

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are down -2.48%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are down -4.10% this morning, extending last week’s losses as concerns intensified that the Federal Reserve is lagging in providing policy support for a slowing U.S. economy.
The market turmoil is increasing expectations for an emergency policy response from the Fed. Traders are now assigning a 30% probability to a 25 basis point interest rate cut within a week.
Sentiment was also dampened by news that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. had reduced its stake in Apple by nearly 50% as part of a significant selling spree in the second quarter. As a result, shares of Apple (AAPL) slumped over -7% in pre-market trading.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages ended in the red, with the benchmark S&P 500 plunging to an 8-week low, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 sliding to a 2-month low, and the blue-chip Dow dropping to a 3-week low. Intel (INTC) crashed over -26% and was the top percentage loser on all three major Wall Street averages after the semiconductor giant reported downbeat Q2 results, offered below-consensus Q3 guidance, and said it would cut over 15% of its workforce as well as suspend its dividend. Also, Amazon.com (AMZN) slumped more than -8% after the e-commerce and cloud giant reported weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue and issued disappointing Q3 guidance. In addition, Snap (SNAP) plummeted nearly -27% after the company reported weaker-than-anticipated Q2 revenue and provided gloomy Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance. On the bullish side, Clorox (CLX) climbed over +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after reporting better-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS and offering a strong FY25 adjusted EPS forecast.
The U.S. Labor Department’s report on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 114K jobs last month, significantly below the consensus estimate of 176K. Also, the U.S. July unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to a 2-3/4 year high of 4.3%, weaker than expectations of no change at 4.1%. In addition, U.S. average hourly earnings came in at +0.2% m/m and +3.6% y/y in July, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y. Finally, U.S. June factory orders fell -3.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -2.7% m/m and the biggest decline in 4 years.
“Bad news is no longer good news for stocks,” said John Lynch at Comerica Wealth Management. “Of course, we’re in a period of seasonal weakness, but sentiment is fragile given economic, political, and geopolitical developments. Pressure will escalate on the Federal Reserve.”
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized on Friday that the central bank will not overreact to any single report, noting that policymakers will receive a lot of data before the Fed’s next meeting. Goolsbee, speaking after the release of the weaker-than-expected employment report, stated that it is the Fed’s job to discern the “through line” of the data and proceed in a “steady” manner. However, “if unemployment is going to go up higher than the neutral rate, that is exactly the kind of pinching on the other side of the mandate that the law says the Fed has to think about and respond to,” Goolsbee said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Michael McKee and Sonali Basak.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 4.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 95.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
Second-quarter earnings season continues, and investors await new reports from notable companies this week, including The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Caterpillar (CAT), Eli Lilly (LLY), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Gilead Sciences (GILD), CVS Health (CVS), Duke Energy (DUK), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Realty Income (O), Shopify (SHOP), Uber Technologies (UBER), Paramount Global (PARA), Lucid Group (LCID), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Rivian Automotive (RIVN) and Beyond Meat (BYND).
Market participants will also be monitoring several economic data releases in the coming week, including the U.S. Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Crude Oil Inventories, Consumer Credit, Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories, and Wholesale Trade Sales.
In addition, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will be making appearances this week.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will come in at 51.4, compared to the previous month’s figure of 48.8.
Also, investors will likely focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which stood at 55.3 in June. Economists foresee the July figure to be 56.0.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.750%, down -0.98%.

Let's take a look at the markets today, focusing only on the downside as that's where the premium lies.
Fridays bearish move took most of the indices back below the all important 50DMA. Those indices that didn't break below look to do so today. 

The IWM and DIA look to go negative on the year!

Let's start with the Nasdaq since that's going to be our main focus trade for the next three weeks. The biggest thing to note on the daily chart is that this mornings selloff pushes us below the 200DMA. This is huge folks.

Intra-day /NQ: support levels:
​17348/17185. If we break below 17185 the next support is all the way down at 16434. Let's go!

/ES: We will potentially setup a small /ES trade today but the risk profile is not near as good as our NDX setup.​
The less tech heavy /ES is still above it's 200DMA. There's two key support levels on /ES. 5156 is the first. If that breaks down we have to go all the way down to 5048 to find the next support.

Bitcoin: BTC is in full on crash mode. Sinking from 70,000 to 50,000 in a little over a weeks time. This level puts us back at the Feb. consolidation zone and could provide a good long entry. Still too early to tell.

Let's have a great day folks! Today WILL bring us wonderfull opportunities. It's our job to capitalize. I'm excited to see how we do.

Good morning traders. I think it will be a good morning but, yesterday was a bad one. At least for me, For how happy I was with the profit we pulled Weds. on FOMC day, that's how depressed I was yesterday with my poor results. Here's a look at my days activity. Lots of trades we super close to profits but that doesn't count for much at the end of the day. Close doesn't pay the bills. I'll try to recoup today with focusing my trading efforts. /MNQ futures contracts for scalping (no options unless it's to cover the futures position) and Our NDX debit setup.

Our NDX debit is our best shot at recouping the losses from yesterday. It's got $33,000 of profit potential in it and with futures down again this morning its already profitable but could get much better. This will be my focus today, along with scalping the /MNQ futures.

What's happening to the market? Two things. Tech weakness. That continues today with poor earnings reception out of some big tech names. Also, Jobs. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Game of trades put out a wonderful analysis of this, which I shared with our trading community a couple days ago. It certainly looks spot on. Check it out and give them a follow. The put up good research. 

Let's take a look at the market internals. Technicals are bearish. No big surprise here.

IWM and DIA have given up their recent parabolic gains but the SPY and QQQ, with all the damage they've taken, are still sitting close to or just above their 50DMA and are back to consolidation zones that we established in May. From a big picture perspective it looks pretty calm. From an intra-day perspective its a lot of volatility.

Over the last week the sector rotation out of Tech and into "safer" sectors has accelerated. 

Let's take a look at a couple key levels in the indices that I'm watching. There are several key levels on the /ES.  To the upside 5485 is key. That's the 50DMA. Bulls need to retake that to get any upward momentum. On the downside I have three levels I'm watching. 5359/5228/5094 (see arrows. PoC is 5094)

/NQ has been weaker than the /ES.  Two levels stick out to me. 19,633 on the upside (this is the 50DMA) and 18,318 on the downside. (this is PoC)

Bitcoin continues to be tough to trade directionally here. 65,400 is right around the PoC and the 50DMA. We may wait for the next directional trend to start before trading it.

​September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are trending down -1.81% this morning as fears of a U.S. slowdown and disappointing quarterly results from industry heavyweights such as Intel and Amazon weighed on sentiment, with the focus now shifting to the highly anticipated U.S. payrolls reading due later in the day.
Amazon (AMZN) slumped over -9% in pre-market trading after the e-commerce and cloud giant reported weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue and issued disappointing Q3 guidance. Also, Intel (INTC) plummeted more than -21% in pre-market trading after the semiconductor giant reported downbeat Q2 results, provided below-consensus Q3 guidance, and said it would cut over 15% of its workforce as well as suspend its dividend starting in the fourth quarter.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed lower. Moderna (MRNA) plummeted over -21% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the biotech firm slashed its full-year net product sales guidance. Also, Western Digital (WDC) plunged more than -9% after the company provided below-consensus Q1 revenue guidance. In addition, Arm (ARM) slumped over -15% after the chip designer issued soft Q2 revenue guidance. On the bullish side, C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) climbed more than +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after reporting better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS. Also, Meta Platforms (META) advanced over +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the social media heavyweight posted upbeat Q2 results and issued a solid Q3 revenue forecast.
Economic data on Thursday showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 46.8 in July, weaker than expectations of 48.8 and the steepest pace of contraction in 8 months. Also, U.S. Q2 nonfarm productivity advanced +2.3% q/q, stronger than expectations of +1.7% q/q, while U.S. Q2 unit labor costs rose +0.9% q/q, weaker than expectations of +1.8% q/q. In addition, U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m in June, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +14K to a nearly 1-year high of 249K, compared with the 236K expected. 
“The labor market has been flashing warning signals over the past several months,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research. “History suggests Powell is walking a very fine line on potentially waiting too long to start cutting rates before it’s too late.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 100% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in September.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Enbridge (ENB), and Church & Dwight (CHD) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
Today, all eyes are focused on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that July Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 176K, compared to last month’s figure of 206K.
A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that 42% of investors believe the market reaction to the jobs report will be “risk-off,” 36% said “negligible/mixed,” and only 22% anticipate “risk-on.”
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data will also be closely watched today. Economists expect July’s figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y.
U.S. Factory Orders data will come in today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at -2.7% m/m in June, compared to the previous number of -0.5% m/m.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today as well. Economists foresee this figure to remain steady at 4.1% in July.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.951%, down -0.61%.

My bias today is bullish. It's not uncommon for a big algo move on FOMC days to get completely reversed the next day. Taken in context Wed. and Thurs. price action netted out to being not much of a move. The poor tech earnings this morning are tanking futures, once gain and that, along with yesterday certainly makes things look ugly. I believe that we may have a good chance to aborb the poor earnings today and get a bounce from the selloff we are currently seeing in the futures. I'm allready in one long /MNQ contract in scalping and may sell a 0DTE covered call on it today.

My plan for today, once again: Focused effort today on our debit NDX position. I don't want 7 trades to keep track of today. be quicker to take both profits and losses on it as the day progresses. I'll use the /NQ futures again to work the put covers so I have more flexibility and time, should I need it.
​My biggest focus and advice for today to myself and all of you? Don't revenge trade today! Let's be patient with entries and quick with exits.

Welcome back! FOMC has come and gone and it didn't disappoint. I'm getting a late start so todays blog will be short. Here's a look at our results from yesterday.

​September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +0.36% this morning as strong quarterly results from Meta Platforms and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell boosted sentiment, while investors awaited a new round of U.S. economic data and earnings reports.
Meta Platforms (META) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and issued solid Q3 revenue guidance.
As widely expected, yesterday the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, a level it has held since last July. At the same time, policymakers made several changes to the language of a statement issued after their two-day meeting. The committee altered its language to state it is “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” moving away from previous wording that concentrated solely on inflation risks. The Fed also adjusted its language to note that price pressures remain “somewhat” elevated and to acknowledge “some further progress” toward its inflation goal, a change from “modest further progress” in the previous statement. In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated at his post-monetary policy decision press conference that a rate cut “could be on the table as soon as September” if inflation continues to move toward the central bank’s 2% target.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching 1-week highs and the blue-chip Dow posting a 1-1/2 week high. Nvidia (NVDA) surged over +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after Morgan Stanley named the chip giant a top U.S. chip stock pick following the stock’s recent selloff. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained more than +4% after the semiconductor company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results, offered a solid Q3 revenue forecast, and boosted its full-year guidance for artificial intelligence chip sales. In addition, Match Group (MTCH) climbed over +13% after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 revenue and announced plans to cut about 6% of its staff. On the bearish side, Humana (HUM) plunged more than -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the health insurer cut its full-year GAAP EPS guidance and warned of higher hospital admissions.
The ADP National Employment report on Wednesday showed private payrolls rose by 122K jobs in July, significantly lower than the consensus figure of 147K. Also, the U.S. employment cost index, a key gauge of U.S. labor costs, rose +0.9% q/q in the second quarter, weaker than expectations of +1.0% q/q. In addition, the U.S. July Chicago PMI fell to 45.3, a smaller decline than expectations of 44.8. Finally, U.S. pending home sales rose +4.8% m/m in June, stronger than expectations of +1.4% m/m and the biggest increase in 6 months.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, with investors awaiting new reports today from notable companies such as Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), Block (SQ), DoorDash (DASH), Cigna (CI), ConocoPhillips (COP), Roblox (RBLX), and DraftKings (DKNG).
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the July ISM Manufacturing PMI will arrive at 48.8, compared to last month’s figure of 48.5.
Also, investors will likely focus on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, which stood at 51.6 in June. Economists foresee the July figure to be 49.5.
U.S. Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity preliminary data will also be closely watched today. Economists forecast Q2 Unit Labor Costs to be at +1.8% q/q and Q2 Nonfarm Productivity to stand at +1.7% q/q, compared to the first-quarter numbers of +4.0% q/q and +0.2% q/q, respectively.
U.S. Construction Spending data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at +0.2% m/m in June, compared to the previous number of -0.1% m/m.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will come in today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 236K, compared to last week’s value of 235K.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.055%, down -1.22%.

Market technicals are bullish

Most indices have easily cleared their respective 50DMA's save for the QQQ's which look to do so today.

I hope you all have a great day today. Premium is down a tad today after that monster rally but it's still good. Let's make it happen.

Welcome back to FOMC day! Lots of traders dread today and some simply take the day off. We love it! Mostly we just sit on our hands all day until the last 90 minutes. That's when things get exciting. 

I'm super happy with our trading results from yesterday. I was down 8-10K for a good part of the day. We worked and worked and worked our 0DTE's and all in all I have to say it was a good day. Let's take a look at our results.

I'd like to say we are out of the woods and all our rolled trades but alas no. We've still got a rolled call side on NDX that we will need to deal with today. 
​Let's take a look at the markets. Futures are up this morning. Retracing everything the market gave away yesterday. It's like yesterday never happened. Back to a bullish bias.

There was some damage done yesterday with the QQQ's continuing to be the weakest, staying down below the 50DMA. The SPY however, found support there and held firm.

The IWM and DIA seem impervious to anything negative. Their strength is impressive.
Most of the internal metrics we look at continue to point to bullish price action.

The 1 day VIX is showing the I.V. we like to see.  Premiums should be excellent today.

NYSE Up volume is still positive vs. down volume.

The RUT continues to have elements that keep hitting new highs.

But I believe we are overstretched here on the IWM.  Diminished buying vol. Price action stalled out the last three days and Stoch in over bought zone. 

No levels or bias lean for me today as is the case every FOMC day. We will just trade what we see. Here's your cheat sheet for Powell today.

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.98%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +1.57% this morning as expectations mounted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell might signal a potential rate cut for September, while investors also awaited a fresh batch of U.S. economic data and an earnings report from Meta Platforms.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed. CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) slumped over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after CNBC reported that Delta Air Lines had hired lawyers to seek compensation from the cybersecurity firm and Microsoft over the operations meltdown experienced during the global IT outage. Also, Merck & Co. (MRK) slid more than -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Dow after the pharma giant cut its full-year adjusted EPS forecast. In addition, Procter & Gamble (PG) fell over -4% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 sales. On the bullish side, Howmet Aerospace (HWM) surged more than +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the supplier to Boeing lifted its FY24 adjusted EPS guidance. Also, PayPal Holdings (PYPL) climbed over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after posting upbeat Q2 results and boosting its annual earnings guidance.
A Labor Department report on Tuesday showed that U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to 8.184M in June, compared to an expected figure of 8.020M. Also, the Conference Board’s U.S. July consumer confidence index inched up to 100.3, stronger than expectations of 99.7. In addition, the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. rose +6.8% y/y in May, stronger than expectations of +6.5% y/y.
Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision later in the day. While the Fed is anticipated to maintain benchmark rates at the highest level in more than two decades, market participants will be closely monitoring for any hints that the start of policy easing is near.
“If the Fed does not signal a September rate cut, markets could get a bit ugly given recent tech weakness - especially if earnings underwhelm,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.7% chance of at least a 25 basis point rate cut at September’s monetary policy meeting and a 60.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the November meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Meta Platforms (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Western Digital Corporation (WDC), Arm Holdings (ARM), Boeing (BA), eBay (EBAY), Altria (MO), and Marriott International (MAR) are slated to release their quarterly results today. 
On the economic data front, investors will direct their attention to the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 147K, compared to the previous number of 150K.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. Chicago PMI, which stood at 47.4 in June. Economists foresee the July figure to be 44.8.
The U.S. Employment Cost Index will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to arrive at +1.0% q/q in the second quarter, compared to the first-quarter number of +1.2% q/q.
U.S. Pending Home Sales data will come in today. Economists expect June’s figure to be +1.4% m/m, compared to last month’s figure of -2.1% m/m.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be -1.600M, compared to last week’s value of -3.741M.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.138%, down -0.07%.

Let's have a great day folks. FOMC days always give us the potential we need. It's up to us to properly execute on that. 

Welcome back traders. We had a solid day yesterday. It could have been much better. It could have been worse. Our net liq was up on the day and several of our 0DTE setups worked but my QQQ hedge in scalping to protect our NDX rolled puts lost money and our Event Contract 0DTE just missed out on profits on the NDX. Here's a look at our results from all our day trades. Our working order for a Theta fairy hit on both the entry and take profit so that result will post to todays P/L matrix.

This is our big NDX roll we've been working since last week. I positve day here would help a bunch. There's almost 10K of profit sitting in it. 

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are trending up +0.17% this morning as market participants braced for the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting while also awaiting the latest reading on U.S. job openings as well as an earnings report from tech giant Microsoft.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. ON Semiconductor (ON) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor maker reported better-than-expected Q2 results. Also, Tesla (TSLA) advanced more than +5% after Morgan Stanley named the electric vehicle giant as its new “Top Pick” within the U.S. auto sector. In addition, McDonald’s (MCD) climbed over +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow despite posting downbeat Q2 results, as executives pledged to launch new promotions. On the bearish side, Arm (ARM) slumped more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after HSBC downgraded the stock to Reduce from Hold. 
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting later in the day. Fed officials, who have maintained interest rates at a more than two-decade high for a full year, are widely anticipated to keep them unchanged again when their two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday. Instead, investors expect policymakers to lower their benchmark rate in September as the risk of jeopardizing a solid yet moderating job market increases.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season is in full swing, with investors awaiting new reports today from notable companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Procter & Gamble (PG), Merck (MRK), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Pfizer (PFE), and Starbucks (SBUX).
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the June JOLTs Job Openings will come in at 8.020M, compared to the previous figure of 8.140M.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index, which arrived at 100.4 in June. Economists foresee the July figure to be 99.7.
The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. will be reported today as well. Economists expect May’s figure to be +6.5% y/y, compared to the previous number of +7.2% y/y.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.185%, up +0.19%.

Market technicals as ever so slightly bullish

We continue to be stuck in a consolidating pattern on most of the indices.

Good fortune today traders. Let's see if we can get our rolled NDX puts to the finish line. 

Welcome back to a new trading week! Last week was a tough one for a lot of traders. It did however bring back the I.V. we've been missing. We had a decent day on Friday with some of our rolled positions going out at a profit but our NDX rolls are still going. It looks like we can get a couple take profits on those today if the futures hold. Here's a look at our day last Friday.

Let's take a look at the markets. Technicals are swinging back to buy mode this morning.

It's really a tale of two different money flows. The SPY and QQQ are still stuck in a consolidation zone while the IWM and DIA continue to look to new bullish highs.

​After finding nearly perfect resistance at the 1.618 golden Fibonacci extension last week, the SPY reversed sharply lower to find itself at the bottom of the ascending channel, closing the week at $548.99 (-1.96%). A weekly bearish engulfing candle suggests the possibility of further downside, which is supported by the price closing below the daily 8/21 EMA cloud.

​The pain continued for the QQQ this week, which closed at $475.24 (-3.96%). With the price breaking down below the ascending channel and a seemingly imminent bearish 8/21 EMA cross on the horizon, the area of low volume looks primed for an eventual test.

​The rotation into small caps continued this week, gaining over 6% before a strong reversal on Wednesday. Despite this, the IWM closed higher for the second week in a row at $216.84 (+1.74%), but put in a concerning Shooting Star weekly candle as the price fell back into the ascending channel. Bulls will be looking for the 8/21 EMA cloud to act as support next week.

Let's take a look at the expected moves for the week. I.V. looks solid for us. Let's see if it holds through the week.

​eptember S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.29%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +0.38% this morning as market participants looked ahead to earnings reports from major tech names, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, as well as the release of the U.S. jobs report later in the week.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages ended in the green. 3M Company (MMM) soared about +23% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. Also, Charter Communications (CHTR) surged more than +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the cable and internet company reported better-than-expected Q2 results. In addition, Deckers Outdoor (DECK) climbed over +6% after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results and raised its FY25 EPS guidance. On the bearish side, DexCom (DXCM) plummeted more than -40% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the diabetes device maker reported mixed Q2 results, issued below-consensus Q3 revenue guidance, and lowered its FY24 revenue outlook.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday showed that the U.S. core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Federal Reserve, came in at +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y in June, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Also, U.S. June personal spending rose +0.3% m/m, in line with expectations, while U.S. June personal income rose +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m. In addition, the University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index was revised upward to 66.4 in July, stronger than expectations of 66.0. 
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference will take center stage in the coming week. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely anticipated to maintain rates at the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%, with investors and economists believing that the central bank won’t adjust rates until its meeting in September. At the same time, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the Fed to signal its intention to lower interest rates in September at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.6% chance of at least a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting and a 61.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s November meeting. 
Second-quarter earnings season continues in full force, and investors anticipate fresh reports from major companies this week, including Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), Starbucks (SBUX), McDonald’s (MCD), Boeing (BA), Mastercard (MA), Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), Merck (MRK), Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), SoFi Technologies (SOFI), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), and Qualcomm (QCOM).
On the economic data front, the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for July will be the main highlight. Also, market participants will be eyeing a spate of other economic data releases, including the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index, JOLTs Job Openings, S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity (preliminary), Unit Labor Costs (preliminary), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Factory Orders.
The U.S. economic data slate is mainly empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.169%, down -0.77%.

We needed this push up we are currently getting with the futures. If we could exit our SPY/QQQ trades and Some of our NDX puts today it would be a fantastic day for us. Let's go get some today traders!

Welcome back traders and happy Friday! We didn't make much progress yesterday as I had to roll both put and call sides of some of our 0DTES. We did have some success with Scalping and our NDX event contract 0DTE. Both of these can provide some needed buffers when the market is crazy. If you'd like to trade these daily setups with us I'll provide the links below. 

Some of you have inquired about access prop funds to trade with. I love and endorse Apex. I think its a great training tool. You can check it out here. 

While our results from yesterday didn't look very good, our rolls into today look to hopefully yield some good results. Here's what we did achieve yesterday. 

Technicals are still in sell mode but it wouldn't take much to flip back to buy mode. We seem overstretched to the downside.

Yesterdays price action didn't do much to change the directional landscape. A nice push up and then a finish at the days lows. 

With the exception of the Russell, which is on a parabolic rip, all the indices we trade are still stuck around the new support/resistance area that was established about one month ago.

The fear and greed index is starting to flash a buy signal 

Tech was ugly yesterday but the overall market actually looked pretty healthy.

​In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. Edwards Lifesciences (EW) plummeted over -31% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company reported weaker-than-anticipated Q2 revenue, issued lackluster Q3 guidance, and cut its annual guidance for sales of some heart valve replacements. Also, Lululemon Athletica (LULU) slumped more than -9% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Citi downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy. In addition, Ford Motor (F) tumbled over -18% after the carmaker reported downbeat Q2 results. On the bullish side, ServiceNow (NOW) surged more than +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its FY24 subscription revenue guidance. Also, International Business Machines (IBM) climbed over +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the IT giant reported better-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year free cash flow forecast.
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s preliminary reading on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy grew at a +2.8% annualized rate in the second quarter, surpassing the +2.0% consensus estimate and accelerating from +1.4% in the prior quarter. Also, the U.S. Q2 core personal consumption expenditures price index rose +2.90%, slowing from +3.70% in Q1. In addition, U.S. June durable goods orders unexpectedly plunged -6.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m, while U.S. June core durable goods orders rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell -10K to 235K, compared with the 237K expected. 
“Goldilocks is getting stronger and the risk of stagflation is fading,” said David Russell at TradeStation. “There’s not much ‘stag; and not much ‘flation’. This kind of GDP report is a potential tailwind for corporate earnings that keeps us on pace for lower rates going forward.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting and a 99.8% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Charter Communications (CHTR), and 3M (MMM) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y in June, compared to last month’s figures of +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be closely monitored today. Economists forecast June Personal Spending to be at +0.3% m/m and June Personal Income to come in at +0.4% m/m, compared to the May numbers of +0.2% m/m and +0.5% m/m, respectively.
The U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 66.0 in July, compared to 68.2 in June.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.252%, down -0.17%.

Bitcoin; BTC had a strong upward push overnight. 68,588 is the new resistance. 66,484 is support.

Let's bring some of that rolled premium in today! Have a great weekend.