Market analysis for Dec. 9th, 2025

Levels, levels and more levels.

I'm a big believer in humility as a wonderful human trait and that "pride cometh before the fall". This is accurate in life but especially important in trading. The minute you think you've got it figured out and are "hot stuff" the market has a way of smacking you upside the head! Our trades are no different and any other traders. Some win and some lose but...one thing I do brag about and am very proud of, is our levels. Win, lose or draw on the day, our levels are usually pretty spot on. It's what we base all our trading off of. It's our "secret sauce" here. Yesterday however was on another level!  I told our traders before the open it could be a "yucky" day. No body wants to really commits, either way, before FOMC. (Frankly today could be the same). We were down most of the day but kept working it. Stayed patient and darned if we didn't hit both our resistance area and target area within 1 point!
Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets.
​Sitting so close to ATH's, nobody wants to commit before FOMC tomorrow.

We start the day with a technical neutral rating. That seems very appropriate but also gives no guidance.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.07% this morning as investors gear up for the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, while also awaiting the delayed reading on U.S. job openings.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed lower. Marvell Technology (MRVL) slumped about -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Benchmark downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and withdrew its price target. Also, Tesla (TSLA) slid more than -3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight. In addition, CoreWeave (CRWV) fell over -2% after the cloud computing firm announced plans to offer $2 billion worth of convertible senior notes due 2031 in a private placement. On the bullish side, Paramount Skydance (PSKY) climbed more than +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share in cash.
The Fed kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day. The central bank is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Investors will closely follow Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for clues on next year’s interest rate path. Market watchers will also scrutinize the Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, which will offer guidance on how policymakers expect the interest-rate path to unfold over the next few years.
“The tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and accompanying statement will be critical,” wrote Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid. “We expect Powell to emphasize that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a near-term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility.”
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures for October, set to be released in a couple of hours. Notably, the October JOLTs report will include figures for September. The report will provide investors with additional insight into the health of the U.S. labor market. Economists, on average, forecast that the JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 7.2 million.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will also be released today. Economists expect the September figure to drop -0.3% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.5% m/m.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Monday it will skip publication of its delayed October PPI report and instead roll those figures into a rescheduled November report set for publication on January 14th.
On the earnings front, notable companies like AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson (FERG), AeroVironment (AVAV), and GameStop Corp. (GME) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
In tariff news, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 5% levy on imports from Mexico, accusing the country of violating a 1944 treaty that obligates it to deliver millions of gallons of water to the U.S.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.162%, down -0.26%.

​The S&P 500 is trading at nearly 24x forward P/E ratio, the 2nd-highest among major global stock markets.

Meanwhile, Wall Street expects as much as a +16% rise in the S&P 500 in 2026. Do you  think our ATM portfolio can beat the market results again in 2026? My money (literally) says yes!

​The SPX option score has stabilized near the upper end of its range, hovering around 4–5, which signals improving short-term sentiment compared with the mid-November softness.
Price action has also firmed, with the index carving out a series of higher lows and pushing back toward the recent 6,900 level. In the very near term, this combination, stronger option score plus recovering spot price, suggests traders are leaning more constructively, especially if the index can hold above the mid-6,800 zone that has acted as a pivot.
However, the score has flipped quickly before, so watching whether it sustains another high reading over the next few sessions will be key to gauging whether momentum builds or stalls.

Let's take a look at the intraday /ES levels once again. Today may be another "malaise" like yesterday. I don't expect much movement before FOMC. That doesn't mean we can't profit (see yesterday), but we'll likely need to work for it. 6863, 6870* (20.50PMA on 2hr. chart convergence), 6875, 6883, 6894 are resistance levels. 6856, 6850, 6844, 6836, 6830 are support levels. 

We had an excellent training yesterday, and tomorrow will be our last in our 12-part series on must-read books. We'll end with on one of the best books ever for traders. Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp. It's an absolute must for serious traders. Please join us tomorrow in our live Zoom feed.  

See you all shortly in the live trading room! Let's make some more money today.
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