Market analysis for Dec. 11th, 2025

There is a trade setup for every day.

Last week was amazing for us. Every day a winner. Great. Last week had some really good setups. This week? Well, Monday and Tuesday were blah as traders didn't want to take positions prior to FOMC. Yesterday was a big "wait and see" until the end of the day. Two very big traders I follow on Twitter just said, "take this week off" and walked away. This always blows my mind. Yes, this week has not presented the amazing setups we'd like to see but never the less, we've made money every day.  That's the power of options. Regardless of market conditions, Up, down, neutral. High I.V, Low I.V. There are setups that can work. Are they as juicy as we'd like? Not always, but there are always trades to be had. Even if it's a 1HTE setup on Bitcoin. We had some nice setups yesterday for FOMC. Did we get rich? No. But we just keep bring in the green. Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets. 
Technicals are back to bullish after the move yesterday. 

Although we do see a bit of Jekyll and Hyde action in the futures. 

It was really the interest rate sensitive IWM that got the best of yesterdays FOMC news.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are down -0.35%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.65% this morning as Oracle rekindled worries about the massive spending tied to artificial intelligence, overshadowing optimism over the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate cut.
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) plunged over -10% in pre-market trading after the software and cloud-computing company posted weaker-than-expected FQ2 cloud sales and raised its full-year capital expenditures forecast. The company’s results brought renewed attention to concerns over tech valuations and whether heavy spending on AI infrastructure will ultimately pay off. Investors will get another read on the AI trade’s strength when Broadcom releases its earnings after the close.
Notably, stock index futures pared earlier losses of more than 1% as dip buyers stepped in. Lower bond yields today are also helping limit losses in equity futures.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed higher. GE Vernova (GEV) surged over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the energy company increased its earnings projections and boosted its dividend and share buyback authorization. Also, Nike (NKE) rose more than +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Guggenheim initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and $77 price target. In addition, Photronics (PLAB) jumped over +45% after the company posted better-than-expected FQ4 results and provided upbeat FQ1 guidance. On the bearish side, shares of mobile grocery delivery firms slipped after Amazon.com announced it had expanded same-day delivery for perishable groceries to more than 2,300 cities and towns, with Uber Technologies (UBER) falling more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and DoorDash (DASH) dropping over -4%.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. employment cost index rose +0.8% q/q in the third quarter, weaker than expectations of +0.9% q/q.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the third consecutive time yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to lower the target range for the Fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.50%-3.75%. Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a half-point rate cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee dissented in favor of keeping rates unchanged. In its post-meeting statement, the committee made a slight adjustment to its language, suggesting greater uncertainty about the timing of its next rate cut. In their updated economic projections, officials’ median forecasts pointed to one quarter-percentage-point cut in 2026 and another in 2027. In addition, policymakers authorized new purchases of short-term Treasury securities to ensure an “ample” level of bank reserves.
At a press conference, Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed had likely done enough to ease the threat to employment while keeping rates sufficiently high to continue easing inflation pressures. “This further normalization of our policy stance should help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2% once the effects of tariffs have passed through,” Powell said.
“The Fed emphasized that future moves will be data-dependent, shifting firmly to a meeting-by-meeting approach,” said Daniel Siluk, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 80.1% chance of no rate change and a 19.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s January meeting.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 220K, compared to last week’s number of 191K.
U.S. Trade Balance data for September will also be released today. The data was originally scheduled for release on November 4th, but was delayed due to the government shutdown. Economists anticipate that the trade deficit will widen to -$62.5 billion from -$59.6 billion in August.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists forecast that the final September figure will come in at +0.1% m/m.
In addition, market participants will monitor earnings reports from several notable companies, with Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST), Ciena Corp. (CIEN), and Lululemon Athletica (LULU) scheduled to report their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.143%, down -0.67%.

We just finished our 12-part series yesterday, and it was a very insightful study. Today, we'll be looking at one of the most infamous books Wall Street has ever seen.  There's some amazing stuff here. If you want to see how we find positions we want to be assigned on in our ATM portfolio (that consistently beats the SP500) you won't want to miss it. Come join us in our live Zoom.

Let's take a look at the intraday /ES levels we'll be working on today: 
6873, 6881, 6888, 6900 are resistance levels. 6863, 6857, 6851, 6845 are support.

We've got a sweet setup already working from yesterday for our SPX 0DTE. We'll build our day out around this position. 

See you all shortly. Today should be a "banger" as the kids like to say!