Market analysis for Dec. 10th, 2025

FOMC day and 19.8%

Today is FOMC day. The expected rate cut is not the news. What Powell says about next year and how a deeply divided Fed will work itself out is the real story. Also, the great Warren Buffett is set to retire. Considered one of the best investors to have ever lived. His long-term track record is 19.8% average annual return. A return, by the way, that doubles (trounces) the stock market.  Remember that 24% a year doubles your money every three years. You don't need better than that. If you can do that, you are in an elite group and your money will compound just fine. I'm super proud of our ATM portfolio. Entering its sixth year with an average yearly return of 26%. Trouncing the market isn't an easy task.

We had a good day yesterday. It was another tough day and my only mistake was trying to scalp on a day that had no real scalping opportunities. Still, we found some places to may money and finished green on the day. 
​Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets.
Technicals are breaking down as we await the FOMC. 

Neither the bulls nor the bears want to take a substantive position this week ahead of FOMC.

Today, we finish our 12-book study with Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp
I'm excited about today's study. I personally think this book is one of the "must-reads" for traders.
Join us today before the FOMC announcement on our live Zoom feed. This one is a must-attend.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are down -0.05%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.11% this morning as investors refrain from making big bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of the year, with all eyes on the central bank’s outlook for interest rates in 2026.
Higher bond yields today are weighing on stock index futures. The 10-year T-note yield rose two basis points to 4.20%, extending its advance as investors grew more cautious about the pace of rate cuts next year.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. AutoZone (AZO) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted weaker-than-expected FQ1 results. Also, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) slid more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after its consumer banking chief, Marianne Lake, said firmwide expenses in 2026 would total roughly $105 billion. In addition, Toll Brothers (TOL) fell over -2% after the homebuilder reported weaker-than-expected FQ4 earnings and gave cautious 2026 deliveries guidance. On the bullish side, Ares Management (ARES) climbed more than +7% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the asset manager would be added to the S&P 500 index on December 11th.
A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. JOLTs job openings rose to a 5-month high of 7.670 million in October, stronger than expectations of 7.140 million. Separately, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.3% m/m in September, in line with expectations.
“It’s hard to read too much into the JOLTs report – the outperformance in job openings is ostensibly hawkish…, but the pace of layoffs rose too,” according to Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli.
Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut for a third straight meeting. That would take the Fed funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Market watchers will follow Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for clues on next year’s interest rate path. Market participants will also scrutinize the Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, which will offer guidance on how policymakers expect the interest rate path to unfold over the next few years.
The implied move in the U.S. stock market following the Fed’s decision is just under 1% in either direction, according to data from Strategas Group. A swing of that magnitude would mark the largest post-Fed-Meeting move in the S&P 500 index since March.
“It’s not too much of an exaggeration to say that the rate cut is actually the least important part of this meeting,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. The market “cares much more that the Fed signals it will continue to cut rates and does not signal a pause in the rate-cut cycle.”
Meanwhile, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the frontrunner in President Trump’s search to replace Mr. Powell, said on Tuesday he believes there is ample room to significantly lower rates, potentially by more than a quarter-point cut. “If the data suggests that we could do it, then — like right now — I think there’s plenty of room to do it,” Hassett said.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Employment Cost Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The ECI was originally scheduled for release on October 31st, but was delayed due to the government shutdown. Economists expect this figure to come in at +0.9% q/q in the third quarter, the same as in the second quarter.
The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will also be released today. Economists expect this figure to be -1.2 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of 0.6 million barrels.
On the earnings front, prominent companies such as Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), and Synopsys (SNPS) are set to report their quarterly figures today. Oracle’s results will attract particular attention amid concerns over lofty tech valuations and whether massive AI investments will ultimately deliver returns.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.210%, up +0.45%.

​The SPX momentum setup is stabilizing again, with the momentum score climbing back to its upper range (near 5) after several weeks of choppy readings. Price action has also firmed, with the index holding above recent swing lows and grinding toward the upper end of its short-term range.
In the very near term, the key thing to watch is whether SPX can maintain this renewed momentum strength, as past rebounds to a score of 5 have often coincided with brief follow-through attempts.
If momentum slips back toward the mid-range again, it would signal that buyers are losing control of the current bounce and that the index may be stuck in a sideways consolidation.

​QQQ’s 1-month skew continues to show a clear put-side bias, with the risk-reversal sitting in the upper-third of its 3-month range (≈74th percentile). This suggests that traders are still paying a relative premium for downside protection even as spot prices have recovered from the late-November dip.
The white 25-delta risk-reversal line has been grinding higher, indicating persistent demand for puts over calls. In the short term, this kind of elevated skew often reflects a market that’s stabilizing but still carrying hedging pressure, useful to keep in mind if volatility picks up again or if QQQ retests recent support levels.

On FOMC days, I don't give levels or a directional bias as those are less accurate on days like today. Powell's testimony is all that really matters. We have an overnight Theta fairy that we'll work up to the FOMC minutes release, then we'll work our 0DTE after Powell speaks.
See you all on Zoom shortly!