Market analysis for Mar. 14th, 2025

Welcome back to Friday traders! Another week of downward pressure. If it seems everyday is a down day that's because lately it is! This slide started Feb. 19th, almost one full month ago and with very few pauses, it's been straight down. 

We've gone to some defensive adjustments to our trading. Downsizing our buying power usage and focusing mainly on SPX 0DTE only. It's helped. The last few trading days for us have been pretty easy. Risk management is first priortiy with profits second. The one thing that sometimes gets lost with that approach is that risk management can be expensive. Whether you are using stop losses or adjustments to exit losing positions before they get too big, either way there is a cost attached to that action. It means, while you may not risk losing much, you may also limit your profits. Never the less, that still seems to be the most prudent way to trade in this bearish market. We didn't make much progress yesterday as I took two quick adjustments right out of the gate on SPX which both cost money but...we kept our risk in line. Take a look at our day:

Let's take a look at the markets and see if we have a chance for a rebound today. I think we might. Technicals are still bearish but less so than they have been for the last few weeks.

The red is still flowing on all the indices but, we are coming into a previous support level. Yes, it was established all the way back in Aug. of last year but it's there.

Futures are up this morning as economic, tariff and government shutdown concerns ease. 
March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.80%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +1.01% this morning as optimism over the likely aversion of a U.S. government shutdown boosted sentiment.
A day after stating that Republicans lacked the votes to pass a spending bill to keep the federal government funded through September, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Thursday evening that he will support the bill, clearing the path for its passage. “I believe it is my job to make the best choice for the country to minimize the harms to the American people. Therefore, I will vote to keep the government open and not shut it down,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. Avoiding the government shutdown eliminates a source of uncertainty for investors, who are already on edge over U.S. economic growth amid President Donald Trump’s tariff war.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed sharply lower. Adobe (ADBE) plunged over -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the software giant issued downbeat FQ2 guidance. Also, the Magnificent Seven stocks retreated, with Meta Platforms (META) sliding more than -4% and Apple (AAPL) falling over -3%. In addition, UiPath (PATH) slumped more than -15% after the software company gave disappointing full-year revenue guidance. On the bullish side, Intel (INTC) surged over +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after naming Lip-Bu Tan, the former chief executive of Cadence Design Systems, as its new CEO.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand was unchanged m/m and rose +3.2% y/y in February, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, came in at -0.1% m/m and +3.4% y/y in February, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell -2K to 220K, compared with the 226K expected.
“Thursday’s inflation data is backward-looking, and the real worry is the inflationary effects that may come from tariffs, which is a wild card for markets and the Federal Reserve,” said Paul Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.0% chance of no rate change and a 3.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting.
Today, investors will focus on the University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The reading is expected to show a further drop in consumer sentiment amid tariff uncertainty and public-sector job cuts. Economists, on average, forecast that the preliminary March figure will stand at 63.1, compared to 64.7 in February. Also, investors and Fed officials will closely monitor the survey’s inflation expectations metrics.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.296%, up +0.47%.

My bias or lean today is bullish. "Tariff talk" seems to be having less and less effect on the market. Concern over a Government shutdown had eased.  We only have the Michigan sentiment forecast today as our planned news catalyst so I think today can be a building day for bulls. Futures are currently up 50 points on /ES.

Trade docket today: ADUS, BITO, BKE, CMPR, WWW, BTC (probably a 0DTE today vs. 1HTE) and SPX 0DTE focus.

Let's take a look at some technicals to start our day.
​/ES: On a bigger picture, we are back to a consolidation zone that started all the way back in July/August of last year. RSI, Stoch. MACD are all flashing oversold.

On an intra-day basis futures are up a strong 55 points. 5571 is the first key launching pad with 5610 being the target for today. 5521 is support.

BTC: Bitcoin is back to establishing a bullish trend. I'll likely work a 0DTE vs. a 1HTE setup today. 83,558 is first key hurdle to the upside with 84,601 working at the target. 82,028 is support.

I'm excited to see what we can produce today with SPX. I think Broken wing butterflies will give us the best risk/reward setups for today. See you all in the live trading room shortly!