Welcome back traders!  I love the saying, "It's not what you trade, it's who trades it that matters."  What you trade, what setups you choose, what the market does, etc. None of that is ultimately as important as you...the trader and how you manage it. We've been scaling our trading down. Tightening our risk management. Putting on a big hedge in our scalping room, all in preparation for a day like yesterday (and what looks like today). It's almost indescribable how gratifying it was last night, watching the futures crash and watching our accounts go up!
We should start the day up about $1,400 dollars thanks to our hedge and siting mostly in cash. The value of our trading community isn't the trades we offer up each day. It's the people and the exchange of ideas and the focus it brings to trading with a plan. Who know's what trading will look like today but it's gratifying to know we've got some cash to put to work and some profits to start us off with. Yesterday was interesting and a bit of a precursor to today. Premium was "strange". Price action was "strange". We, once agian, focused our primary efforts on risk management. It got a bit higher than our $500 dollar goal. At one point I had $775 at risk but we ultimately lived to fight another day. This is how close we got on the SPX. Another day of solid risk management while still having great return potential.

How does our asset allocation passive, long term investment portfolio, The ATM program look this morning? Great. Our over performance, compared to the SP500 just keeps growing. As I say, have a plan and stick to it.
​Take a look at our results from yesterday:

One of the hardest things to do as a trader is to stick to your plan when, A: It's not working. B: Everyone else around you is making money doing the opposite. Your payoff eventually comes due. As one of our trading members said yesterday, "You don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out." You'll see that today. I'm not sure what percentage of traders are starting off today with their portfolios up but we certainly are!

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -3.09%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -3.42% this morning, pointing to a sharply lower open on Wall Street as sweeping tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump fueled fears of an escalating trade war and economic slowdown.

President Trump on Wednesday unveiled the most aggressive U.S. tariffs in a century as he intensifies his push to reshape world trade. Trump said that a baseline 10% tariff would be imposed on almost all U.S. imports starting April 5th. Also, numerous countries would be hit with additional “reciprocal” tariffs, including total duties of 54% on China, 46% on Vietnam, and 20% on the European Union. The higher tariffs on targeted countries, which will replace - not supplement - the 10% baseline rate, are scheduled to take effect on April 9th, according to the White House. The announcement stoked a global risk-off mood, with gold reaching new highs and the 10-year Treasury yield falling to its lowest level in over five months as investors flocked to haven assets.
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“The tariff plans provided significantly more clarity than many investors likely had expected,” wrote Michael Zezas, global head of fixed-income research and public policy strategy at Morgan Stanley. “However, the magnitude of the tariffs announced by the White House suggest that the downside risks to global growth have increased relatively to what was already priced by markets.”

Investors now await a new round of U.S. economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the green. Tesla (TSLA) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after Politico reported that President Trump had told his inner circle that Elon Musk would soon step back from his government role and return to his businesses. Also, Caesars Entertainment (CZR) advanced more than +5% after Raymond James added the stock to its “Analyst Current Favorites” list. In addition, DoorDash (DASH) rose over +3% after announcing a partnership with Domino’s Pizza, where orders placed on DoorDash’s Marketplace will be delivered by Domino’s drivers. On the bearish side, nCino (NCNO) tumbled more than -19% after the cloud-based software company posted weaker-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS and issued below-consensus FY26 guidance. 

The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by 155K in March, easily topping the 118K consensus. Also, U.S. factory orders rose +0.6% m/m in February, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said on Wednesday, “I will support maintaining the current policy rate for as long as these upside risks to inflation continue [pointing to government policy changes], while economic activity and employment remain stable. Going forward, I will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and changes in the balance of risks.”

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 78.1% chance of no rate change and a 21.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at May’s monetary policy meeting.

Today, investors will focus on the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast the March ISM services index to be 53.0 and the S&P Global services PMI to be 54.1, compared to the previous values of 53.5 and 51.0, respectively.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect this figure to be 225K, compared to last week’s number of 224K.

U.S. Trade Balance data will be released today as well. Economists foresee this figure standing at -$122.50B in February, compared to -$131.40B in January.

In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Fed Governor Lisa Cook throughout the day.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.054%, down -3.36%.

Let's get it on folks! I'm super excited to get this day started. See you all in the live trading room!

Good morning traders! Welcome to "Liberation day"...whatever that may mean. It could be a big day. I'm watching 5620 on /ES. That's been a key support level. If we lose that it could be "look out below". We had a great day yesterday. We didn't make our $1,000/day goal but it was our best risk adjusted day all year. Our risk never went above $50 dollars all day. Granted we hit each entry pretty much perfect but it was gratifying, nonetheless. One of the first decisions an option trader needs to make is "Debit or credit?" Debits are pure directional plays. They have much lower probability of success but better risk/reward. Credit trades can be built with incredible probabilites of success of have worse risk/reward. I.V. also factors in. When I.V. is high options are expensive. Generally you want to sell expensive options and buy cheap ones. We've found our best success lately is a combination of both debit and credits setups with butterflies or broken wing butterflies adding nice profit zones.
​Here's a look at our day:

Let's take a look at some of the market metrics:
​Sell signals all across the board.

The bigger picture is starting to look more and more bearish.

One quick note here: We love bearish markets. They are unquestionably the best for us. They offer bigger moves and larger premiums as I.V. spikes. If you are stuck in the idea that you want markets to go up you are short changing yourself of a better opportunity. I'm parking my long term money in our A.T.M. program which works like a hedge fund and can profit from down moves and in my trading account I'm trading small each day. Find a plan that works for you in a bear market. Don't complain...adjust.

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending down -1.01% this morning as risk sentiment took a hit ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs announcement.
President Trump is set to announce his reciprocal tariff plan at an event in the White House Rose Garden just as U.S. stock markets close at 4 p.m. The White House said on Tuesday that reciprocal tariffs would become effective immediately after Trump announces them, heightening concerns about the economic impact of a trade war. Bloomberg reported that several proposals are being considered, including a tiered tariff system featuring a series of flat rates for countries, along with a more tailored reciprocal plan. Also, a recently announced 25% tariff on auto imports is set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time on April 3rd.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed. Tesla (TSLA) rose over +3% after Wells Fargo added the stock to its Q2 Tactical Ideas list. Also, PVH Corp. (PVH) surged more than +18% after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results, issued above-consensus FY25 guidance, and said it plans to enter $500 million accelerated share repurchase agreements. In addition, Crowdstrike (CRWD) gained over +2% after Stephens initiated coverage of the stock with an Overweight rating and a price target of $450. On the bearish side, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Dow after a federal judge in Texas rejected the company’s third attempt to use the bankruptcy of one of its units to resolve baby powder cancer claims.
A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to 7.568M in February, weaker than expectations of 7.690M. Also, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index fell to a 4-month low of 49.0 in March, weaker than expectations of 49.5, while the ISM prices paid sub-index rose to a 2-3/4 year high of 69.4, stronger than expectations of 64.6. At the same time, the U.S. March S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised upward to 50.2, beating the consensus of 49.8. In addition, U.S. construction spending rose +0.7% m/m in February, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin stated on Tuesday that President Trump’s tariffs could drive up both inflation and unemployment, posing a significant challenge for the central bank. Barkin noted that a tariff-driven price shock could lead to a “cage match” between a frustrated consumer unwilling to pay more and a goods and services provider who “really believes” they must pass on increases. Regarding the labor market, the Richmond Fed chief said, “If you are a company that can’t raise prices, then your margin goes down. You’re going to start working on operational efficiencies, and that means headcount.” Also, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cautioned about the adverse effects of any pullback in consumer spending or business investment stemming from tariff-related uncertainty. “If the consumer stops spending or business stops investing because they’re uncertain or they’re afraid where we’re headed, that would be a bit of a mess,” Goolsbee said in an interview on Fox News.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 85.5% probability of no rate change and a 14.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May FOMC meeting.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 118K, compared to the February figure of 77K.
U.S. Factory Orders data will also be reported today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at +0.5% m/m in February, compared to the previous number of +1.7% m/m.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -0.400M, compared to last week’s value of -3.341M.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler. 
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.174%, up +0.43%.

My lean or bias today is bearish. We lose 5620 on /ES and down we go. Nuff said.

Let's look at the /ES today and focus primarily on it.
What do we see on the daily chart? Trend? Down. We are in a huge low vol node which means movement (substantial) is coming. Below the 200DMA. MACD, STOC, RSI etc. all flashing sell signals. As I type this we just went below the 5620 level (very bearish) but the big double whammy that could be coming, if bulls can't step in in the Mar. 13th. 5508 key support. IF we get back down there we also have a good chance that the 50DMA (green line) crosses down through the 200DMA (red line). That my friends is a death cross. Below the 200DMA and a death cross? That's the biggest bearish signal I know. I'm not saying it will happen. Just be prepared.

Our goal (my my suggestion to you) is to focus today on risk management and let the profit or loss fall where it may. I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly. Let's have a repeat of yesterday. That would be nice.

Welcome back traders. I know it's April 1st but it's no joke. The market moves are something we havent seen in a long time. We were just talking early this morning in the live trading room how important it is in times like this to have something that is stable. Our ATM asset allocation portfolio continues to make money as the market loses. Diversification will save you in times like this and having something that can make money as markets go down is a big part of that. We were oh so close...again on our SPX 0DTE yesterday. The risk managment is on point but we just haven't been able to land on a big profit zone. 

All we can really do in a market like this is make sure our risk is in check. The results will be what they will be. Here's a look at my day yesterday.

We'll work the same approach today. We've got $1,600 or extrinsic on a 2DTE expriation in our scalping setup. That served us well yesterday. Let's see what we can do with that today. If the markets can build today like they did yesterday we may be able to get $400+ out of another roll up and out. That would be an easy way to profits today.
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The notorious JPM collar trade: The JPM Collar (June 30th Exp): Short 5880 Call Long 5290 Put Short 4460 Put What This Suggests JPM Expects: 1. They’re Not Expecting a Big Rally Above 5880 By selling the 5880 call, they are capping upside. This usually means: “We’re okay missing out on further gains above this level.” It implies a neutral to slightly bullish view — but not euphoric. So: they don’t expect SPX to go way above 5880 before June 30. 2. They Want Protection Starting Around 5290 Buying the 5290 put signals concern about a moderate correction. They’re willing to pay for insurance if SPX falls below current levels. This means: “We’re preparing for a potential pullback or downside volatility.” 3. They’re Willing to Take Some Tail Risk Below 4460 Selling the 4460 put reduces cost — but opens risk if SPX crashes hard. This implies: “We don’t think SPX is going below 4460 — and if it does, we’ll take the hit.” So they’re betting that: A crash below 4460 is unlikely Or if it happens, they’re okay absorbing that risk (possibly because they have other hedges)
This had generally been a good guide for what plays out and what the "big boys" are doing with their money.

Let's take a look at the markets today: Sell mode is still working. Bulls tried a few times yesterday but didn't acomplish much. 

All the major indices we track and trade continue to sit on the "cliff". There's a lot of downside potential below it if the bulls can't hold this level.

I continue to watch the 270 level on VTI. As long as that level holds, I continue to hold my long /MNQ in our scalping program and cover it with a /NQ credit spread.  It faught well yesterday. 

My lean or bias today is still neutral. We need to either recapture our upper resistance level or lose the cliff to get this market moving again. Yesterdays 100+ intra-day swing in the SPX ended up being nothing at the end of the day. Directional moves will come. When? We don't know.

Let's try to be patient with our SPX entry. Work our /MNQ scalp to maximize it's potential and squeeze as much as we can out of the 1HTE's today. See you all in the live trading room!