Market analysis for Jan. 31st, 2025

Back to another Friday! Crazy how fast this week has gone for me. Let's all get out of the house this weekend and do something! We had a solid day yesterday, once again. I was on the wrong side of two big scalps which hurt me there but we are up $1,100 this morning so that should get us a better result to finish off the month. We couldn't quite make it a full month without a losing day. Close! Oh so close. Here's our results below:

We've brought in almost $30,000 of profit this month including the 1HTE's. Its been a great start to the year.
Let's take a look at the market and what's moving it. 

The Dow is certainly pushing on its ATH's but the rest of the indices are still stuck. We were finally able to get some weekly setups back on our oil faithful SPY/QQQ/IWM. Hopefully next week we'll be able to continue those.

The news that moved us, first down, then up late yesterday and apparently into this morning was the word "tariff". They look like they are coming. Maybe Saturday at the earliest. Is it a bluff? A bargining tool? We'll know when the markets open next Monday. PCE is out this morning and that could shake things up as well.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.46%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.73% this morning as solid earnings from Apple and Intel buoyed sentiment, while investors geared up for the release of the Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge.
Apple (AAPL) rose over +3% in pre-market trading after the iPhone maker reported upbeat FQ1 results and offered reassuring FQ2 revenue guidance. Also, Intel (INTC) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected Q4 revenue.
Investors are also preparing for President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement this weekend. Trump stated that he would enact his threat to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on February 1st, citing the flow of fentanyl and substantial trade deficits as key reasons for his decision. He also threatened China with tariffs but did not specify a level.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green. International Business Machines (IBM) surged nearly +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the IT giant posted upbeat Q4 results and provided strong FY25 revenue growth guidance. Also, Lam Research (LRCX) climbed more than +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor equipment firm reported better-than-expected FQ2 results and offered an upbeat FQ3 forecast. In addition, Tesla (TSLA) advanced over +2% after the EV maker revealed plans to start robotaxi operations and projected a “return to growth in 2025.” On the bearish side, United Parcel Service (UPS) tumbled more than -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the shipping giant issued below-consensus FY25 revenue guidance. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the tech giant reported weaker-than-expected FQ2 Intelligent Cloud revenue and said its cloud-computing business will continue to grow slowly in FQ3.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in its initial estimate of Q4 GDP growth, said on Thursday that the economy grew at a +2.3% annualized rate, weaker than expectations of +2.7%. Also, U.S. December pending home sales plunged -5.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change and marking the biggest drop in 5 months. At the same time, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell by -16K to 207K, compared with the 224K consensus.
“Overall, the economy is on firm footing heading into 2025, which should support risk assets given the strong linkage between economic growth and corporate profits,” said Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 84.0% chance of no rate change and a 16.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), and Charter Communications (CHTR) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y in December, compared to the previous figures of +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y. 
Investors will also focus on the U.S. Employment Cost Index, which came in at +0.8% q/q in the third quarter. Economists expect the fourth-quarter figure to be +0.9% q/q.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate December Personal Spending to be +0.5% m/m and Personal Income to be +0.4% m/m, compared to November’s figures of +0.4% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.
The U.S. Chicago PMI will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 40.3 in January, compared to the previous value of 36.9.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.534%, up +0.49%.

The trade docket is busy today. Our take profit already hit for last nights Theta fairy. So nice to start the day off with $100 dollars in our pocket. We'll keep scalping with what we setup yesterday and this morning. There's another $1,000 additional potential there. AAPL, ABBV, ALTR, ASUR, CAVA, CRNX, GCBC, GE, IWM , LENZ, SPY/QQQ, QTTB, SUM, TEAM, TSLA, V, VALU, XOM, 1HTE, 0DTE's with SPX, NDX and possibly NVDA and MSTR.

Let's take a look at our intra-day key levels.
​/ES: Levels continue to slid up. Resistance is now at 6152 with support at 6077

/NQ: Levels are sliding up as well. 21,985 is now resistance with 21,583 acting as support.

BTC: Bitcoin is a bit more nuanced. It's be volatile but seems to come back to its current chop zone going back almost a week. It's current level (as I type) is sitting right at PoC on the 2hr. chart so who knows? We may stick here all day. $106,412 is resistance with $107,486 above that. $103,877 is support. It's close. A break below that could be bearish.