Market analysis for Jan. 7th, 2025

 Welcome to Tuesday! We had another really solid day yesterday. We over achieved on our $1,000/day goal. This I.V. enviroment is still in the dumps. (see below)

Until we can get some sustained downard movement, not a one or two day selloff but a real, sustainable downtrend, I don't see stand alone credit trades working very consistently. Until then we'll continue to use debit trades to anchor our positions and then trade around them if required.
Our results from yesterday exceeded our goals. It was a good day and, so far this year its been a good year. I've added in a column in our P/L matrix for our A.T.M. portfolio as well for this year. I'll update those results monthly. Here's a look at our day yesterday. 

Let's take a look at the markets current status. Buy mode is still holding on.

I honestly don't read much into the chart levels today. For bulls there's some good signs in the SPY and QQQ's both holding above their 50DMA. IWM and DIA aren't going up be at least they are holding their own at these levels. There's no real trend at the moment.

​Docket
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for December
Median Forecast: 48.2 | Prior: 48.4 | Range: 49.7 / 46.9
Manufacturing Prices Paid
Median Forecast: 51.4 | Prior: 50.3 | Range: 53.7 / 51

Speakers
11:00 ET
Fed’s Barkin gives keynote remarks at an event hosted by the Maryland Bankers Association, in participation with the Maryland Association of CPAs, Maryland Chamber of Commerce, Maryland Realtors, and Maryland Retailers Alliance.
Text and Q&A expected
ECB’s Lane participates in a panel on “Geopolitical Fragmentation” hosted by the American Finance Association at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association/Allied Social Science Associations in San Francisco.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.09%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.08% this morning as investors geared up for the latest reading on U.S. job openings while also awaiting remarks from a Federal Reserve official.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching 1-week highs. Chip stocks rallied after Nvidia’s assembly partner Foxconn reported record quarterly revenue driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure, with Micron Technology (MU) surging over +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nvidia (NVDA) rising more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow. Also, MicroStrategy (MSTR) climbed over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the price of Bitcoin hit a two-week high, and the company said it had bought 1,070 Bitcoin last Monday and Tuesday. In addition, Paycor HCM (PYCR) soared more than +23% after Bloomberg reported that Paychex is in advanced talks to acquire the company. On the bearish side, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) slumped nearly -5% after Morgan Stanley assumed coverage of the stock with an Underweight rating and a price target of $60.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. December S&P Global services PMI was revised downward to 56.8 from the preliminary reading of 58.5. Also, U.S. factory orders fell -0.4% m/m in November, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated on Monday that policymakers can proceed more cautiously with further interest rate cuts, citing a robust labor market and lingering inflation pressures. “Over time, I still think it will likely be appropriate to move the policy rate toward a more neutral stance,” Cook said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 90.9% probability of no rate change and a 9.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.
Meanwhile, investors are still dealing with the possibility of escalating trade tensions after Donald Trump denied a report suggesting he might ease plans for comprehensive tariffs upon his return to the White House.
Today, all eyes are on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the November JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 7.730M, compared to the October figure of 7.744M.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. ISM Services PMI, which stood at 52.1 in November. Economists expect the December figure to be 53.5.
U.S. Trade Balance data will be released today as well. Economists foresee this figure to stand at -$78.30B in November, compared to the previous value of -$73.80B.  
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. 
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.628%, up +0.26%.

My bias or lean today is not very meaningful. It just looks like a chop zone to me. Until we can gain some momentum one way or the other is just going to chop in this large zone we are currently in. I'll go with a Neutral rating for today even though futures are up and technicals are bullish.

Let's take a look at the intra-day levels for our 0DTE's today. Yesterdays levels were pretty spot on for us. 
/ES: Did I mention chop zone? We have some good levels today and we started an /ES 0DTE yesterday that we will build on today. It looks very promissing and I believe we will be doing more 1DTE's at the end of our days which will turn into the anchor positon for our 0DTE's the next day. 6039 is the first resistance with 6058 being the next. 5999 is support with 5967 next.

/NQ: our Nasdaq levels havent changed at all since late yesterday. 21,746 is first resistance and we are pushing on it as I type. 21,937 is next. 21,562 is first support and 21,426 is next.

BTC: Our Bitcoin levels adjusted just a bit. 103,707 is now resistance....toying with ATH's. 101,083 is support with 99,415 next. We have a 1HTE exipiring in 28 min. (as I type) that should yield us a $652 profit.

I'll see you all in the trading room. I'm really liking the numbers on our "1DTE into 0DTE" approach. I think it should yield us some nice potential today.