Market analysis for Jan. 30th, 2025

Welcome to Thursday, or what we call "FOMC hang over day"! I have to start off todays blog with this...I don't hype up what we do or what we've built here. I'm not the guy screaming about get rich quick or guarantees of profits. I actually try to downplay the opportunity but my gosh!... We've had one heck of a great month and I do think it's at least partially attributed to our unique setups. Who else has our earnings results? We intented the Theta fairy. We pioneered 1HTE's on Bitcoin. Our approach and order entry to trading 0DTE's is something I haven't seen anyone else do. Our scalping program hasn't had a single losing day this month and is on track for over $120,000 APR. Our passive, asset allocation portfolio is up almost 9% this month. I want to knock on wood and hopefully I'm not ruining our stellar run but man...I'm just proud of what we've done here.

Here's our results from yesterday:
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Let's take a look at the markets.
​Buy mode is trying to get a foot hold.

Markets are still pinching. A big move could be incoming. 

The IWM finally seems to be stabilizing. That means we'll be back on our IWM millionaire maker trade today.

​March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are trending up +0.54% this morning as investors digested earnings reports from big U.S. tech companies.
Tesla (TSLA) gained over +2% in pre-market trading despite reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 results, as the EV maker revealed plans to begin robotaxi operations and projected a “return to growth in 2025.” Also, Meta Platforms (META) rose about +2% in pre-market trading after the social media and tech giant reported better-than-expected Q4 results and CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that 2025 would be a “really big year” for AI, though light Q1 revenue guidance capped gains. At the same time, Microsoft (MSFT) fell more than -3% in pre-market trading after the tech giant reported FQ2 Intelligent Cloud revenue that missed analyst expectations and said its cloud-computing business will continue to grow slowly in FQ3.
Investors now look ahead to fresh U.S. economic data, including the first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP and jobless claims figures, along with a slew of corporate earnings reports, with a particular focus on results from “Magnificent Seven” member Apple.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.50%, following a string of rate cuts last year. In a post-meeting statement, officials reiterated that inflation remains “somewhat elevated” but omitted a reference to its progress toward their 2% target. Later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell clarified that the reference to inflation was merely an effort to shorten the sentence, rather than convey any significant message.
At a press conference, Powell stated that officials are in no hurry to lower interest rates, adding that the central bank is pausing to observe further progress on inflation. “With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” he said.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed lower. Packaging Corp. (PKG) fell over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the maker of cardboard boxes issued below-consensus Q1 EPS guidance. Also, Nvidia (NVDA) slid more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow and Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that Trump administration officials were exploring additional curbs on the company’s chip sales to China. In addition, Danaher (DHR) slumped over -9% after the life sciences firm posted weaker-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS. On the bullish side, F5 Inc. (FFIV) climbed more than +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported upbeat FQ1 results and provided a strong FQ2 revenue forecast. 
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that preliminary U.S. wholesale inventories fell -0.5% m/m in December, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m. 
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 82.0% probability of no rate change and an 18.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.

My bias or lean today is bullish. While futures are up this morning we do have jobless claims and GDP which could create some movement. We are also working into a tight consolidation zone so a breakout WILL be coming. What direction? That's a guess at this point. 

Trade docket is busy today: /MNQ scalping, Theta Fairy, IWM, SPY/QQQ, AAPL, V, ABBV, XOM, TEAM, /NG, IBM, LEVI, META, MSFT, 1HTE, 0DTE's, TSLA.

Let's take a look at our intra-day levels:
/ES: Zones have tightened after FOMC. 6126 is still resistance with support sliding up to 6035.

/NQ: Likewise, ranges are tightening. 21,797 is still resistance with support moving up to 21,487.

BTC: Bitcoin firmed up nicely yesterday afternoon. I'm looking at three key levels today. 105,638 is close and, I believe, a key demarcation level. Above is bullish. Below is bearish. Resistance above that level is pretty substantial at 107,103 with support moving up to 102,673.

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly!