Market analysis for Jan. 28th, 2025

Welcome back traders! What an amazing day yesterday. It was an absolute home run. Now, to give us credit, we did corrrectly read the bearish flip on Friday and positioned ourselves coming into Monday with a bearish NDX setup. On the other hand, we clearly weren't expecting the kind of sell of we got. It was fantastic and we had a blowout success with all our trades. Scalping continues to kill it. We haven't had a single losing day all month and are right on pace for our $100,000 a year income goal. See our results below:

Let's take a look at the markets: Neutral rating to start out the day but there's some very bullish price action that happened under the surface yesterday that I'll share down below.
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Intra-day the selloff might have seemed monumental but big picture? Meh...

​Nvidia's market cap fell $593 billion today, which was by far the largest single-day decline for any company in history. The loss in value was bigger than the market cap of 487 companies in the S&P 500. Remember folks...one stock does not make a market...in the long term.

This is what is MOST interesting to me and why I'm very bullish right now. ​Believe it or not, market breadth actually improved today. 64% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading above their 200 Day moving average, the most since December 13

Trade docket today: /MNQ scalping continues. SBUX, ASML, DHR, MSCI earnings. 1HTE, 0DTE's, 10DTE NDX trade. JBLU, BA.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.09%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.16% this morning, stabilizing after yesterday’s dramatic selloff, while investors awaited the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting as well as a flurry of U.S. economic data and corporate earnings reports.
The dollar strengthened after U.S. President Donald Trump said he preferred significantly larger across-the-board tariffs than the 2.5% reportedly favored by new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Trump also stated that he would soon impose tariffs on foreign-produced semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and certain metals to encourage manufacturers to produce domestically. “I have it in my mind what it’s going to be but I won’t be setting it yet, but it’ll be enough to protect our country,” Trump told reporters Monday night.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed, with the benchmark S&P 500 sliding to a 1-week low and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slumping to a 1-1/2 week low. Chip stocks tumbled after the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek sparked concerns about the potential demand for the most advanced chips and data centers, with Nvidia (NVDA) plunging nearly -17% to lead losers in the Dow and Broadcom (AVGO) sinking more than -17%. Also, nuclear power stocks, anticipated to benefit from rising demand driven by energy-intensive data centers for AI technology development, came under pressure, with Vistra Corp. (VST) plummeting over -28% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Constellation Energy (CEG) dropping more than -20%. In addition, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) fell over -10% after the lender issued below-consensus full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. On the bullish side, AT&T (T) climbed more than +6% after the company posted upbeat Q4 results.
Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. new home sales rose +3.6% m/m to 698K in December, stronger than expectations of 669K.
“What was shaping up to be a big week in the markets got even bigger with the disruption in the AI space,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “That could make this week’s megacap tech earnings even more critical to market sentiment.” 
The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day. After cutting rates three times in late 2024, Fed officials are widely expected to keep them unchanged on Wednesday, given signs of a strong U.S. economy. Market watchers will likely focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for any additional clues about when interest rates might be lowered further. 
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is in full swing, with investors awaiting new reports from notable companies today, including General Motors (GM), Starbucks (SBUX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Stryker (SYK), Royal Caribbean (RCL), and RTX Corp. (RTX). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the January CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 105.7, compared to last month’s figure of 104.7.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. Economists expect the November figure to be +4.2% y/y, unchanged from October. 
U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data will be closely monitored today. Economists forecast December Durable Goods Orders at +0.3% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders at +0.4% m/m, compared to the prior figures of -1.2% m/m and -0.2% m/m, respectively.
The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to come in at -13 in January, compared to the previous value of -10. 
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.559%, up +0.68%.

My bias or lean today: Bullish. We had a handful, and I mean just a handful (mostly A.I. stocks) that lead the market down. Bullish breadth was actually pretty good. We've got some bullish scalps setup for today which are already cash flowing for us. 

Let's take a look at intra-day levels:
​/ES: levels are going to be a bit wider today with the movement we've just had. Resistance is 6127 with support at 5996.

/NQ: Once again, working with wide ranges. 21,780 as resistance with 21,018 acting as support.

BTC: We'll have to see the price action today on Bitcoin. We've had a fantastic couple of days with our 1HTE's but today may be tougher. Resistance is still at 105,37 with support tightening up to 98,737.

Another busy day in the trading room. I look forward to seeing you all there!