Market analysis for Jan. 17th, 2025

Good morning and happy Friday to all you wonderful traders out there! I know I mentioned this over and over yesterday in our live zoom feed but holy smokes, I'm so happy with our trading lately. I was thrilled with our results Weds. We barely squeaked out a profit but...our risk management was on point. Sometimes with dynamic trading and adjustments you don't get a great initial result but you "planted seeds" for the future. We did that on Weds. and it paid off for us in spades yesterday. See our results below:

"Process over profits". Let's just "trade to trade well" and let the profits (or losses) fall where they may. If we do our job well things tend to work out over time. Our goal this year is "Consistency over cash". We don't need home runs to have a great year. 
We have a busy day ahead of use. Let's look at our trade docket before we get into the markets.

Trade docket today could be busy. We've had some good success deploying 0DTE equity setups on Fridays. We've already started our day with an overnight Vampire trade that expires at the open. That could kick off our day with a $368 dollar profit. We are up and running with our first scalp entry with a long /MNQ. That's already profitable. 1HTE on Bitcoin, 0DTE's on SPX.  No NDX today as there are no option expirations for it on the third Fri. of each month. MSTR, TSLA, UNH, SMCI, NVDA are all potential 0DTE opportunities today.

Let's look at the markets for today.
The boys (sorry...bulls) are back in town! It sure looked to me like the market wanted to go higher late yesterday. It didn't but the bulls were trying. Futures are popping this morning. It looks like a bullish day. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.35%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.48% this morning, pointing to a positive opening on Wall Street as Treasury yields edged lower, while investors awaited fresh data on the U.S. housing market and manufacturing sector.
Investors are also focusing on President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday and how his plans for higher tariffs, tax cuts, and stringent measures on undocumented migrants will impact equities.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed in the red. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) slid over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Dow after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue. Also, Texas Instruments (TXN) slumped more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that China is probing allegations of the U.S. dumping lower-end chips and unfairly subsidizing its chipmakers. In addition, U.S. Bancorp (USB) fell over -5% after the bank reported weaker-than-expected Q4 total average deposits. On the bullish side, chip stocks advanced after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a record quarterly profit and provided strong Q1 revenue guidance, with Applied Materials (AMAT) and KLA Corp (KLAC) climbing more than +4%.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that U.S. retail sales grew +0.4% m/m in December, missing the +0.6% m/m consensus, while core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, increased +0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by 14K to 217K, compared with the 210K expected. At the same time, the U.S. January Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to a 3-3/4 year high of 44.3, stronger than expectations of -5.0. Also, the U.S. import price index unexpectedly rose +0.1% m/m in December, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m.
“In the coming weeks, the fourth-quarter earnings season will provide investors with an opportunity to shift some attention from macro to micro data,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management. 

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that the U.S. central bank might cut interest rates again in the first half of 2025 if inflation data remain favorable. “The inflation data we got [on Wednesday] was very good,” Waller said in an appearance on CNBC. “If we continue getting numbers like this, it’s reasonable to think rate cuts could happen in the first half of the year,” he said, noting that he wouldn’t completely dismiss the possibility of a cut in March.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.3% chance of no rate change and a 2.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at January’s monetary policy meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Truist Financial (TFC), Schlumberger (SLB), Fastenal (FAST), State Street (STT), and Regions Financial (RF) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data. Economists expect December Building Permits to be 1.460M and Housing Starts to be 1.330M, compared to the prior figures of 1.493M and 1.289M, respectively.
U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be released today as well. Economists forecast December Industrial Production at +0.3% m/m and Manufacturing Production at +0.2% m/m, compared to November’s figures of -0.1% m/m and +0.2% m/m, respectively.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.596%, down -0.22%.

Let's look at the intra-day levels:
Good news and bad news. If you are wanting bullish price action, we've held above those critical support levels I've mapped out. on the charts below. Bad news is it's just put us back into big consolidation zones, once again. Really now clear trend here in the bigger picture. 
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/ES:  6042 is my resistance target for today with 5981 acting as support. I think today could be a perfect day for a broken wing butterfly.

/NQ: 21,543 is first resistance with 21,693 next. 21,342 is support.

BTC:  Well...I just missed out on what appears to be a wonderful swing trade yesterday. We are back to pushing upward to that lofty $109,000 ATH. We also weren't able to get a 1HTE on yesterday.  We've brought in $3,700 dollars of profit on these this month. I think today will give us another good shot at those. I've got three critical levels I'm watching today. $103,260 is the first. We are sitting on it right now. It's a demarcation point. Above is bullish. Below is bearish. $105,730 is resistance with $98,283 acting as new support. 

My lean or bias today is bullish: This market is wanting to go higher. 

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room today. Let's make some money. I don't think $1,000+ dollars of profit today is a big goal with what we already have working.